Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#61
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#65
Pace75.6#39
Improvement+1.2#105

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot+1.6#135
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#325
Freethrows+2.2#69
Improvement+1.9#45

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+4.9#48
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#110
Layups/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows-0.3#208
Improvement-0.7#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 4.9% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 34.2% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.0% 31.9% 17.8%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.6
.500 or above 91.3% 96.1% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 79.0% 56.7%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 2.2%
First Four8.1% 9.0% 7.3%
First Round21.8% 29.8% 15.3%
Second Round10.5% 14.7% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.5% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 7
Quad 25 - 47 - 11
Quad 37 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 74-62 91%     1 - 0 +6.3 -6.6 +11.9
  Nov 09, 2024 168   Rice W 73-65 82%     2 - 0 +7.3 +0.1 +7.1
  Nov 12, 2024 323   Tarleton St. W 72-52 97%     3 - 0 +8.0 -7.2 +14.5
  Nov 15, 2024 10   Florida L 74-87 31%     3 - 1 +1.5 +1.1 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 156   Hofstra W 79-61 87%     4 - 1 +15.3 +7.8 +7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 118   Temple W 78-69 73%     5 - 1 +11.8 +2.2 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2024 171   Massachusetts W 92-59 83%     6 - 1 +32.3 +15.7 +15.4
  Nov 26, 2024 263   Western Carolina W 91-57 94%     7 - 1 +25.2 +7.8 +14.6
  Dec 03, 2024 47   @ LSU L 75-85 35%     7 - 2 +3.3 +5.5 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ North Carolina St. L 73-75 45%    
  Dec 14, 2024 220   Tulane W 80-68 88%    
  Dec 17, 2024 179   Winthrop W 84-71 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 43   Louisville W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 96   Syracuse W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 87   @ Miami (FL) W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Clemson L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 36   Pittsburgh L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 109   @ California W 79-77 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 93   @ Stanford W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 29, 2025 129   Virginia Tech W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 145   @ Boston College W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 80   Notre Dame W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 12, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 28   Clemson L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   @ Louisville L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 24, 2025 17   North Carolina L 81-84 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-79 10%    
  Mar 04, 2025 90   @ Virginia W 64-63 51%    
  Mar 07, 2025 62   SMU W 81-78 61%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 4.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.9 0.3 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.3 2.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.5 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.1 8.7 11.2 13.1 13.6 12.3 10.7 7.4 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 81.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 49.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 20.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 5.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 98.7% 15.0% 83.7% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
16-4 2.9% 94.1% 10.4% 83.7% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 93.4%
15-5 4.9% 84.8% 8.4% 76.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 83.4%
14-6 7.4% 71.1% 7.4% 63.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 0.0 2.2 68.8%
13-7 10.7% 48.0% 3.5% 44.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 0.1 5.6 46.1%
12-8 12.3% 29.7% 2.3% 27.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 0.2 8.6 28.0%
11-9 13.6% 15.7% 1.2% 14.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.2 11.5 14.7%
10-10 13.1% 6.7% 0.6% 6.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 12.2 6.1%
9-11 11.2% 1.7% 0.4% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.1 1.3%
8-12 8.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.2%
7-13 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 6.1
6-14 3.8% 3.8
5-15 2.0% 2.0
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.9% 2.5% 23.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.7 8.1 0.8 74.1 24.0%