Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#2
Expected Predictive Rating+17.9#16
Pace66.4#252
Improvement-0.2#200

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#9
First Shot+7.7#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#62
Layup/Dunks+2.0#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#13
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement+0.7#124

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#2
First Shot+9.4#3
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#102
Layups/Dunks+9.4#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#98
Freethrows-2.1#297
Improvement-0.9#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.1% 10.6% 4.7%
#1 Seed 37.6% 42.8% 23.2%
Top 2 Seed 63.8% 70.2% 46.2%
Top 4 Seed 87.0% 90.8% 76.5%
Top 6 Seed 95.2% 97.0% 90.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.7% 98.2%
Average Seed 2.5 2.2 3.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 72.6% 79.0% 55.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
Second Round94.3% 95.6% 90.5%
Sweet Sixteen70.9% 73.4% 64.1%
Elite Eight47.8% 50.5% 40.4%
Final Four30.0% 32.1% 24.1%
Championship Game18.2% 19.8% 14.0%
National Champion10.9% 11.9% 8.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 4
Quad 28 - 115 - 5
Quad 38 - 024 - 6
Quad 44 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 211   Maine W 96-62 98%     1 - 0 +28.6 +19.5 +7.6
  Nov 08, 2024 282   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +32.6 +21.3 +10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 9   Kentucky L 72-77 61%     2 - 1 +12.7 +2.5 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 142   Wofford W 86-35 97%     3 - 1 +49.0 +17.0 +36.5
  Nov 22, 2024 23   @ Arizona W 69-55 64%     4 - 1 +31.0 +5.7 +25.8
  Nov 26, 2024 7   Kansas L 72-75 59%     4 - 2 +15.3 +10.2 +5.1
  Nov 29, 2024 123   Seattle W 70-48 97%     5 - 2 +21.3 -0.5 +22.5
  Dec 04, 2024 3   Auburn W 84-78 62%     6 - 2 +23.4 +25.4 -1.4
  Dec 08, 2024 43   @ Louisville W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 10, 2024 314   Incarnate Word W 89-57 99.8%   
  Dec 17, 2024 82   George Mason W 75-58 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 31, 2024 129   Virginia Tech W 80-58 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 62   @ SMU W 79-71 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 36   Pittsburgh W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 80   Notre Dame W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 14, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 145   @ Boston College W 78-61 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 27, 2025 72   North Carolina St. W 78-62 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   North Carolina W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 05, 2025 96   @ Syracuse W 81-69 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 28   @ Clemson W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 109   California W 85-65 96%    
  Feb 15, 2025 93   Stanford W 81-63 95%    
  Feb 17, 2025 90   @ Virginia W 67-55 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 14   Illinois W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 25, 2025 87   @ Miami (FL) W 80-69 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 61   Florida St. W 79-65 90%    
  Mar 03, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 77-59 94%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   @ North Carolina W 80-77 60%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.1 15.8 21.4 18.1 8.4 72.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.7 8.5 13.8 19.7 22.4 18.2 8.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 8.4    8.4
19-1 99.9% 18.1    17.6 0.5
18-2 95.5% 21.4    18.8 2.5 0.1
17-3 80.0% 15.8    11.0 4.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 51.5% 7.1    3.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.8% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 72.6% 72.6 59.4 11.0 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 8.4% 100.0% 69.5% 30.5% 1.2 6.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 18.2% 100.0% 62.9% 37.1% 1.3 12.7 4.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 22.4% 100.0% 56.2% 43.8% 1.6 11.4 8.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.7% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 2.2 5.3 7.5 4.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.8% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 3.1 1.3 3.2 4.3 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 8.5% 99.9% 36.1% 63.8% 4.2 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 4.7% 99.4% 31.5% 67.9% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
13-7 2.4% 97.3% 21.7% 75.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.5%
12-8 1.2% 94.4% 14.7% 79.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 93.4%
11-9 0.5% 87.1% 7.5% 79.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 86.1%
10-10 0.2% 72.8% 5.4% 67.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 71.3%
9-11 0.1% 37.2% 9.3% 27.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.8%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 50.5% 49.1% 2.5 37.6 26.2 13.8 9.3 5.2 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 1.2 84.0 15.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 80.7 17.8 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 78.1 21.9