Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#323
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#284
Pace62.5#329
Improvement-3.1#310

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#331
First Shot-5.1#319
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#239
Layup/Dunks-2.4#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#325
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement-2.8#306

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#286
First Shot-2.7#260
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#279
Layups/Dunks+0.1#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#97
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement-0.3#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.0% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 14.6% 27.3% 4.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 100.0% 82.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 2.6% 1.5%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 33 - 6
Quad 411 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ Louisville L 45-93 1%     0 - 1 -29.8 -22.3 -4.6
  Nov 08, 2024 47   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -13.3 -1.0 -15.7
  Nov 14, 2024 115   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 8%     0 - 3 -8.3 -12.0 +3.9
  Nov 20, 2024 272   Austin Peay W 63-58 46%     1 - 3 -3.5 -4.7 +1.9
  Nov 27, 2024 346   NJIT L 69-78 61%     1 - 4 -21.5 +1.1 -23.7
  Nov 29, 2024 173   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 14%     2 - 4 +4.0 +2.6 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 189   @ Marshall L 77-80 17%     2 - 5 -2.2 +5.6 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 167   @ Ohio L 76-88 14%     2 - 6 -9.7 +0.5 -9.7
  Dec 19, 2024 301   Tennessee Martin W 70-69 OT 53%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -9.3 -9.3 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 274   Tennessee St. W 74-68 46%     4 - 6 2 - 0 -2.7 +2.3 -4.6
  Dec 31, 2024 341   @ Southern Indiana W 70-68 48%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -7.2 -3.0 -4.1
  Jan 04, 2025 309   @ Tennessee Tech L 55-74 36%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -24.9 -20.2 -5.1
  Jan 09, 2025 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 59-53 20%     6 - 7 4 - 1 +5.2 -5.7 +11.3
  Jan 11, 2025 223   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 67-56 20%     7 - 7 5 - 1 +10.3 +2.3 +9.1
  Jan 16, 2025 348   Western Illinois W 51-47 70%     8 - 7 6 - 1 -11.1 -20.0 +9.6
  Jan 18, 2025 336   Lindenwood W 82-65 66%     9 - 7 7 - 1 +3.0 +12.5 -8.0
  Jan 23, 2025 342   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-66 49%     10 - 7 8 - 1 -2.5 +17.0 -17.7
  Jan 25, 2025 245   @ SIU Edwardsville L 54-65 24%     10 - 8 8 - 2 -13.2 -12.7 -1.5
  Jan 28, 2025 341   Southern Indiana W 66-65 68%     11 - 8 9 - 2 -13.3 -4.4 -8.7
  Jan 30, 2025 309   Tennessee Tech L 64-72 56%     11 - 9 9 - 3 -19.0 -10.5 -9.0
  Feb 06, 2025 223   Southeast Missouri St. L 51-80 36%     11 - 10 9 - 4 -34.8 -19.6 -17.4
  Feb 08, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock L 62-76 36%     11 - 11 9 - 5 -19.9 -3.1 -18.3
  Feb 13, 2025 336   @ Lindenwood L 60-73 47%     11 - 12 9 - 6 -21.9 -10.7 -11.9
  Feb 15, 2025 348   @ Western Illinois L 67-72 52%     11 - 13 9 - 7 -15.1 -8.4 -6.8
  Feb 20, 2025 245   SIU Edwardsville L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 342   Eastern Illinois W 66-61 69%    
  Feb 27, 2025 274   @ Tennessee St. L 68-74 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 66-70 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.1 2.5 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 11.3 10.9 0.3 22.5 4th
5th 0.0 5.8 21.5 0.8 28.1 5th
6th 1.0 19.7 2.5 23.3 6th
7th 7.0 7.2 14.1 7th
8th 1.7 0.2 1.9 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 9.7 33.0 35.8 17.9 3.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 3.6% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
12-8 17.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.2
11-9 35.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.8 35.0
10-10 33.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 32.7
9-11 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.7
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 4.2 95.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 5.8%