Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#310
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#323
Pace70.1#167
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#309
First Shot-5.4#329
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#157
Layup/Dunks-3.1#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#317
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-1.1#275

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#285
First Shot-0.3#177
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#344
Layups/Dunks-1.0#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#154
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+1.0#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.0% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 11.1% 17.0% 5.8%
.500 or above in Conference 45.7% 58.6% 34.1%
Conference Champion 5.4% 8.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 3.0% 11.6%
First Four2.6% 3.4% 1.9%
First Round2.3% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 410 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 52 @Wake Forest L 65-81 3%     0 - 1 -2.8 -8.9 +8.0
  Sun, Nov 9 19 @Georgia L 81-120 1%     0 - 2 -20.1 +6.2 -21.5
  Tue, Nov 11 39 @Clemson L 56-83 2%     0 - 3 -11.6 +0.5 -16.7
  Fri, Nov 21 122 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 10%     0 - 4 -9.4 -3.6 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 22 355 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 69%     1 - 4 -10.8 +2.1 -13.0
  Sat, Nov 29 357 @IU Indianapolis L 80-85 59%     1 - 5 -16.0 -11.1 -4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 96 @Murray St. L 52-84 7%     1 - 6 -23.7 -17.3 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 280 @Presbyterian L 72-80 30%     1 - 7 -11.3 +2.1 -13.7
  Tue, Dec 16 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 78-64 61%     2 - 7 1 - 0 +2.5 -4.3 +6.0
  Sat, Dec 20 335 @Southern Indiana L 74-75 47%    
  Thu, Jan 1 225 @Lindenwood L 72-80 23%    
  Sat, Jan 3 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 65-72 26%    
  Thu, Jan 8 258 Tennessee Martin L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 226 Southeast Missouri St. L 74-76 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 222 @Tennessee St. L 69-77 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 @Tennessee Tech L 71-78 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 356 Western Illinois W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 324 Eastern Illinois W 71-67 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 245 SIU Edwardsville L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 225 Lindenwood L 75-77 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 226 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71-79 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 258 @Tennessee Martin L 67-73 29%    
  Thu, Feb 12 241 Tennessee Tech L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 222 Tennessee St. L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 324 @Eastern Illinois L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 356 @Western Illinois W 70-68 58%    
  Tue, Feb 24 335 Southern Indiana W 77-72 68%    
  Thu, Feb 26 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.7 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.5 1.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.5 1.8 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.1 1.2 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 8.2 10.8 12.8 13.4 12.5 11.2 8.8 5.8 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 97.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 91.0% 0.9    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 74.5% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1
14-6 41.3% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 14.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 38.5% 38.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 28.4% 28.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.0% 26.4% 26.4% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.8
15-5 2.0% 22.9% 22.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5
14-6 3.9% 18.2% 18.2% 15.9 0.1 0.7 3.2
13-7 5.8% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.2
12-8 8.8% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.6 8.2
11-9 11.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 10.8
10-10 12.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.3
9-11 13.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.3
8-12 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.8
7-13 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
6-14 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-15 4.9% 4.9
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.4 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%