Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#133
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#174
Pace74.0#52
Improvement+3.4#42

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#129
First Shot+3.3#84
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#280
Layup/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#59
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+0.3#158

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-1.4#216
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+3.1#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 25.7% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 94.5% 98.2% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.7% 97.5%
Conference Champion 33.9% 53.7% 22.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round21.7% 25.7% 19.3%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 75 - 10
Quad 415 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 136   @ James Madison L 78-88 39%     0 - 1 -5.7 +4.8 -10.3
  Nov 09, 2024 179   UNC Asheville W 82-76 70%     1 - 1 +2.3 +0.0 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 145   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 41%     1 - 2 -6.0 +8.4 -15.4
  Nov 15, 2024 35   @ Memphis L 70-94 10%     1 - 3 -8.6 -0.5 -6.3
  Nov 21, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 46%     1 - 4 +0.6 -1.9 +2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 299   Portland W 85-73 81%     2 - 4 +4.2 -2.2 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 167   Texas St. L 65-74 57%     2 - 5 -9.3 -2.0 -8.4
  Nov 30, 2024 244   Robert Morris W 84-68 80%     3 - 5 +8.6 +9.0 -0.4
  Dec 07, 2024 264   Morehead St. W 88-76 83%     4 - 5 +3.4 +8.7 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 70-79 51%     4 - 6 -7.7 -4.0 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2024 305   Austin Peay W 78-58 88%     5 - 6 +9.1 +4.2 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2025 222   @ Central Michigan W 57-55 58%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.4 -10.9 +12.4
  Jan 07, 2025 340   @ Buffalo W 88-79 82%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +0.7 +1.4 -1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 108-70 95%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +20.9 +16.0 +0.5
  Jan 14, 2025 226   Ball St. W 86-71 78%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +8.4 +12.5 -3.5
  Jan 17, 2025 130   @ Akron L 79-82 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 319   @ Eastern Michigan W 83-75 78%    
  Jan 24, 2025 144   Kent St. W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 28, 2025 207   Toledo W 85-78 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 162   @ Miami (OH) L 77-78 44%    
  Feb 04, 2025 288   Western Michigan W 84-73 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   Appalachian St. W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 275   @ Bowling Green W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 144   @ Kent St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 18, 2025 222   Central Michigan W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 130   Akron W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 288   @ Western Michigan W 81-75 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 162   Miami (OH) W 79-75 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 319   Eastern Michigan W 86-72 90%    
  Mar 07, 2025 207   @ Toledo W 82-81 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.7 8.7 11.2 7.5 3.0 0.6 33.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 3.2 9.8 8.3 2.5 0.2 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.0 5.7 1.1 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 5.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.5 11.1 15.9 18.6 18.0 13.7 7.8 3.0 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.0
16-2 97.0% 7.5    6.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.7% 11.2    7.6 3.3 0.3
14-4 48.1% 8.7    3.3 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.6% 2.7    0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.9% 33.9 21.6 9.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 43.9% 43.9% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.0% 40.4% 40.4% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8
16-2 7.8% 35.9% 35.9% 13.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.0 5.0
15-3 13.7% 30.9% 30.9% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.5
14-4 18.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 13.5
13-5 18.6% 19.9% 19.9% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.2 0.0 14.9
12-6 15.9% 15.6% 15.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 13.4
11-7 11.1% 13.0% 13.0% 14.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 9.7
10-8 6.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.7
9-9 3.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
8-10 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1
7-11 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 1.6 5.8 8.8 4.8 0.7 78.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.8 23.8 69.5 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%