Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#274
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#300
Pace76.3#22
Improvement+5.4#18

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#275
First Shot-4.3#296
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#146
Layup/Dunks+2.7#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#347
Freethrows-2.5#318
Improvement+3.2#43

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#240
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#260
Layups/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows-1.8#305
Improvement+2.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 10.3% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.1% 26.7% 5.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 100.0% 96.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 6.7% 5.4%
First Round5.0% 6.9% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 70   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 7%     0 - 1 +2.5 -0.9 +4.5
  Nov 10, 2024 169   @ Wyoming L 66-81 21%     0 - 2 -12.8 -4.7 -8.0
  Nov 13, 2024 307   Howard L 84-88 OT 58%     0 - 3 -12.3 -0.5 -11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 359   Alabama A&M W 81-71 85%     1 - 3 -7.1 -9.9 +1.4
  Nov 25, 2024 115   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 14%     1 - 4 -1.3 -1.6 +0.9
  Nov 26, 2024 153   Bryant L 85-97 27%     1 - 5 -11.7 -0.5 -9.4
  Dec 01, 2024 171   UNC Asheville L 74-92 38%     1 - 6 -21.0 -5.6 -14.8
  Dec 10, 2024 126   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 15%     1 - 7 -19.3 -13.1 -4.4
  Dec 19, 2024 341   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 62%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -11.2 -8.2 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 323   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 54%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -13.1 -2.8 -10.7
  Jan 02, 2025 223   Southeast Missouri St. L 65-67 49%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -7.8 -12.2 +4.5
  Jan 04, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 95-86 49%     2 - 10 1 - 3 +3.1 +9.2 -7.5
  Jan 09, 2025 336   @ Lindenwood L 62-72 61%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -18.9 -15.2 -3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 348   @ Western Illinois W 72-52 65%     3 - 11 2 - 4 +9.9 +2.3 +10.0
  Jan 16, 2025 245   SIU Edwardsville L 80-87 2OT 54%     3 - 12 2 - 5 -14.3 -6.0 -7.2
  Jan 18, 2025 342   Eastern Illinois W 84-65 79%     4 - 12 3 - 5 +4.5 +5.9 -1.8
  Jan 21, 2025 301   Tennessee Martin W 81-80 OT 66%     5 - 12 4 - 5 -9.3 -8.5 -1.0
  Jan 23, 2025 309   Tennessee Tech W 89-77 68%     6 - 12 5 - 5 +1.0 +5.6 -5.2
  Jan 30, 2025 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 30%     7 - 12 6 - 5 +1.2 +3.8 -2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 223   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 87-89 OT 30%     7 - 13 6 - 6 -2.7 +5.4 -7.9
  Feb 06, 2025 348   Western Illinois W 87-69 80%     8 - 13 7 - 6 +2.9 +6.0 -3.2
  Feb 08, 2025 336   Lindenwood W 84-76 77%     9 - 13 8 - 6 -6.0 +5.7 -11.9
  Feb 13, 2025 342   @ Eastern Illinois W 66-49 63%     10 - 13 9 - 6 +7.5 -3.8 +12.3
  Feb 15, 2025 245   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-84 35%     10 - 14 9 - 7 -14.2 -3.1 -10.5
  Feb 18, 2025 301   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 309   @ Tennessee Tech L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 27, 2025 323   Morehead St. W 74-68 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 341   Southern Indiana W 80-72 78%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 9.1 8.4 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 14.8 25.1 3.2 43.2 4th
5th 2.3 17.8 0.3 20.4 5th
6th 0.1 8.1 1.9 10.0 6th
7th 1.5 4.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.0 14.6 34.9 34.7 13.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 13.8% 14.8% 14.8% 15.8 0.5 1.6 11.8
12-8 34.7% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4 31.2
11-9 34.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9 33.0
10-10 14.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 14.0
9-11 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.5 7.4 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 15.8 23.5 76.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6%
Lose Out 1.0%