IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.0	#338
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.6	#317

Pace	61.5	#345
Improvement	-1.7	#263

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#299

First Shot	-5.1	#316
After Offensive Rebound	+0.6	#142

Layup/Dunks	-9.2	#363
2 Pt Jumpshots	+7.5	#3
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.5	#225
Freethrows	-1.9	#293

Improvement	+0.9	#119

Defense
Total Defense	-6.5	#346

First Shot	-3.6	#295
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.0	#350

Layups/Dunks	-5.4	#345
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.3	#221
3 Pt Jumpshots	+2.4	#76
Freethrows	-0.3	#213

Improvement	-2.6	#318

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.1%	2.5%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	5.0%	12.9%	2.8%
.500 or above in Conference	13.7%	30.4%	9.1%
Conference Champion	0.4%	1.5%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	27.6%	14.7%	31.2%

First Four	1.0%	2.1%	0.7%
First Round	0.5%	1.0%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 21.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Quad 3	2 - 3	2 - 4
Quad 4	8 - 14	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	165	@ San Jose St.	W	59-55	10%	1 - 0			+6.7	-4.9	+12.3
Nov 06, 2024	186	@ Pepperdine	L	64-77	12%	1 - 1			-11.2	-5.8	-5.7
Nov 13, 2024	330	Green Bay	L	73-87	59%	1 - 2			-27.4	-5.2	-22.6
Nov 16, 2024	344	Central Arkansas	W	63-61	63%	2 - 2			-12.4	-6.6	-5.5
Nov 19, 2024	105	@ Northern Iowa	L	56-82	6%	2 - 3			-19.1	-9.0	-13.2
Nov 26, 2024	124	@ South Alabama	W	64-63	7%	3 - 3			+6.3	+5.7	+0.8
Nov 27, 2024	295	Incarnate Word	L	75-86	37%	3 - 4			-18.7	-1.0	-18.3
Dec 14, 2024	257	@ South Dakota	L	66-89	20%	3 - 5			-25.3	-11.9	-14.1
Dec 17, 2024	307	Tennessee Tech	W	71-68	50%	4 - 5	1 - 0		-8.1	+1.1	-8.9
Dec 21, 2024	335	@ Lindenwood	L	65-71	38%	4 - 6	1 - 1		-13.9	-7.2	-6.8
Jan 02, 2025	269	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	66-77	22%	4 - 7	1 - 2		-14.0	+8.3	-24.5
Jan 04, 2025	339	@ Eastern Illinois	W	75-67	39%	5 - 7	2 - 2		-0.2	+2.9	-2.8
Jan 09, 2025	291	Tennessee Martin	L	83-85 OT	46%	5 - 8	2 - 3		-12.1	+0.9	-12.9
Jan 11, 2025	302	Tennessee St.	L	52-72	49%	5 - 9	2 - 4		-30.9	-18.7	-14.5
Jan 16, 2025	265	@ Morehead St.	L	62-70	22%
Jan 18, 2025	331	@ Southern Indiana	L	67-70	37%
Jan 23, 2025	250	Arkansas Little Rock	L	64-67	38%
Jan 25, 2025	279	Southeast Missouri St.	L	68-70	44%
Jan 30, 2025	339	Eastern Illinois	W	68-65	61%
Feb 01, 2025	269	SIU Edwardsville	L	64-66	42%
Feb 06, 2025	302	@ Tennessee St.	L	68-74	27%
Feb 08, 2025	291	@ Tennessee Martin	L	65-72	26%
Feb 13, 2025	331	Southern Indiana	W	69-67	59%
Feb 15, 2025	265	@ Morehead St.	L	62-70	22%
Feb 20, 2025	279	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	65-72	25%
Feb 22, 2025	250	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	61-70	20%
Feb 25, 2025	335	Lindenwood	W	69-66	60%
Feb 27, 2025	307	@ Tennessee Tech	L	66-72	29%
Projected Record						10 - 18	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1							0.4	1st
2nd												0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1								0.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	0.8	0.1	0.0								1.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	1.7	0.3	0.0									2.6	4th
5th										0.6	2.7	1.0	0.1										4.4	5th
6th									0.6	3.6	3.1	0.3											7.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	4.1	5.1	1.1	0.0											11.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	4.6	7.5	2.2	0.1												15.3	8th
9th					0.1	1.1	5.8	8.0	3.5	0.3													18.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	1.8	5.8	8.3	4.1	0.5														20.7	10th
11th			0.5	2.7	5.6	5.1	2.8	0.3	0.0														17.0	11th

Total			0.5	2.9	7.4	12.0	17.7	17.6	16.3	11.9	7.6	3.7	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1								Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
14-6	25.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	38.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	4.7%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.5%	0.0					0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	0.1%		32.4%	32.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.0
14-6	0.2%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
13-7	0.5%		12.5%	12.5%		16.0																	0.1	0.5
12-8	1.6%		10.1%	10.1%		16.0																	0.2	1.4
11-9	3.7%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																	0.1	3.6
10-10	7.6%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.2	7.4
9-11	11.9%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.2	11.6
8-12	16.3%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.2	16.1
7-13	17.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	17.5
6-14	17.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	17.7
5-15	12.0%																							12.0
4-16	7.4%																							7.4
3-17	2.9%																							2.9
2-18	0.5%																							0.5
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		1.1%	1.1%	0.0%	16.0																	1.1	98.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.5%