IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.2	#259
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.9	#34
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#248

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#262

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.4%	19.0%	10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.3	14.4	15.0

.500 or above	48.0%	75.1%	43.8%
.500 or above in Conference	62.2%	78.4%	59.7%
Conference Champion	8.8%	15.9%	7.7%
Last Place in Conference	4.9%	1.6%	5.5%

First Four	2.2%	1.7%	2.2%
First Round	11.5%	19.3%	10.3%
Second Round	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 4	11 - 6	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	112	@ Belmont	L	73-85	13%
Nov 16, 2025	156	@ Western Kentucky	L	75-83	23%
Nov 20, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	56-82	1%
Nov 25, 2025	184	@ UNC Asheville	L	73-80	28%
Nov 30, 2025	125	@ Chattanooga	L	70-80	18%
Dec 03, 2025	325	@ Alabama A&M	W	79-78	55%
Dec 13, 2025	86	@ UNLV	L	65-79	10%
Dec 18, 2025	323	Tennessee Martin	W	77-70	74%
Dec 20, 2025	231	Southeast Missouri St.	W	76-74	55%
Jan 03, 2026	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	69-76	28%
Jan 08, 2026	339	@ Western Illinois	W	72-69	60%
Jan 10, 2026	322	@ Eastern Illinois	W	71-70	55%
Jan 15, 2026	293	Morehead St.	W	71-66	66%
Jan 17, 2026	298	Southern Indiana	W	77-72	66%
Jan 22, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	69-73	37%
Jan 24, 2026	327	@ Lindenwood	W	76-74	55%
Jan 27, 2026	328	Tennessee Tech	W	79-71	74%
Jan 29, 2026	177	Arkansas Little Rock	L	72-73	47%
Feb 05, 2026	322	Eastern Illinois	W	74-67	73%
Feb 07, 2026	339	Western Illinois	W	75-66	77%
Feb 12, 2026	298	@ Southern Indiana	L	74-75	47%
Feb 14, 2026	293	@ Morehead St.	L	68-69	47%
Feb 19, 2026	327	Lindenwood	W	79-71	74%
Feb 21, 2026	240	SIU Edwardsville	W	72-70	57%
Feb 28, 2026	323	@ Tennessee Martin	W	74-73	55%
Projected Record						12 - 13	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.5	2.5	2.5	1.4	0.4				8.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.1	3.2	4.2	2.6	0.9	0.1					12.3	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.5	4.2	4.5	2.1	0.5	0.0						12.9	3rd
4th										0.1	1.8	4.7	4.2	1.7	0.1	0.0							12.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.5	4.7	4.1	1.2	0.1									11.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.4	4.4	3.6	1.0	0.0										10.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.3	3.7	3.4	0.9	0.1											9.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.2	3.0	2.6	0.8	0.1												7.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.0	2.2	2.0	0.6	0.0													6.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.6	1.3	0.3	0.0														4.7	10th
11th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.1	0.0															3.0	11th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.4	1.1	2.0	3.5	4.9	6.8	8.5	10.2	11.2	11.5	10.7	9.8	7.9	5.7	3.5	1.5	0.4					Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
17-3	91.8%	1.4		1.3	0.1
16-4	73.4%	2.5		1.7	0.7	0.1
15-5	43.9%	2.5		1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0
14-6	19.1%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-7	4.1%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.8%	8.8		5.2	2.7	0.8	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.4%		64.6%	64.6%		12.6										0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.2
17-3	1.5%		53.6%	53.6%		13.3												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.7
16-4	3.5%		45.6%	45.6%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.0	1.9
15-5	5.7%		36.6%	36.6%		14.9													0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.2	3.6
14-6	7.9%		28.1%	28.1%		16.9														0.1	0.5	1.1	0.8	5.7
13-7	9.8%		17.9%	17.9%		18.4														0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	8.1
12-8	10.7%		12.4%	12.4%		18.7														0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	9.4
11-9	11.5%		6.0%	6.0%		18.6															0.0	0.2	0.6	10.8
10-10	11.2%		3.1%	3.1%		17.6																0.0	0.3	10.8
9-11	10.2%		2.0%	2.0%		16.9																0.0	0.2	10.0
8-12	8.5%		0.8%	0.8%		17.0																0.0	0.1	8.4
7-13	6.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	6.8
6-14	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
5-15	3.5%																							3.5
4-16	2.0%																							2.0
3-17	1.1%																							1.1
2-18	0.4%																							0.4
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	16.3										0.0		0.1	0.4	1.2	2.5	4.0	4.4	88.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%