Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#99
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#130
Pace67.2#232
Improvement+2.4#40

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#146
First Shot+2.0#123
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#233
Layup/Dunks+0.8#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#97
Freethrows-1.8#280
Improvement+1.7#56

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#64
First Shot+0.6#151
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#7
Layups/Dunks+3.1#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#280
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement+0.6#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 7.6% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.2% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.1 10.8 11.4
.500 or above 72.3% 84.6% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 72.9% 62.6%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round5.1% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 35.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 24 - 55 - 11
Quad 34 - 39 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 289   North Dakota W 82-56 91%     1 - 0 +16.4 -1.8 +16.6
  Nov 08, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 94%     2 - 0 -3.9 -4.4 -0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 321   Denver W 74-65 94%     3 - 0 -3.0 -4.1 +1.3
  Nov 16, 2024 26   Mississippi L 69-84 22%     3 - 1 -1.5 +8.5 -11.7
  Nov 22, 2024 175   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 81%     3 - 2 -5.8 -6.5 +0.8
  Nov 28, 2024 75   Washington L 67-73 42%     3 - 3 +1.5 -0.2 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 78   TCU W 76-72 OT 43%     4 - 3 +11.1 -0.2 +10.8
  Dec 04, 2024 181   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 81%     5 - 3 +24.9 +10.6 +14.9
  Dec 07, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 14, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 64-68 34%    
  Dec 17, 2024 189   Radford W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 48   @ Nevada L 63-71 23%    
  Dec 28, 2024 65   New Mexico L 76-77 47%    
  Dec 31, 2024 194   @ San Jose St. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 104   UNLV W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 61-71 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 22, 2025 53   Boise St. L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 286   Air Force W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 37   San Diego St. L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 11, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   Wyoming W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 48   Nevada L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 104   @ UNLV L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 69-60 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 52   Utah St. L 71-72 45%    
  Mar 04, 2025 194   San Jose St. W 73-63 81%    
  Mar 07, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 66-73 26%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 4.6 1.1 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.2 5.5 1.5 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 7.4 5.5 1.5 0.1 20.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.0 5.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 17.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.2 9.1 11.6 13.6 14.2 13.0 10.2 7.1 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 97.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 86.0% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 55.6% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.2
15-5 21.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 81.6% 14.3% 67.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.6%
18-2 0.3% 68.0% 28.0% 40.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.6%
17-3 1.0% 48.8% 24.2% 24.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 32.5%
16-4 2.4% 29.8% 17.9% 11.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.7 14.6%
15-5 4.3% 19.0% 14.5% 4.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 3.5 5.2%
14-6 7.1% 10.5% 9.1% 1.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 1.5%
13-7 10.2% 6.5% 6.2% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.6 0.3%
12-8 13.0% 4.5% 4.4% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.4 0.2%
11-9 14.2% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 11.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.8 0.0%
10-10 13.6% 1.9% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.3
9-11 11.6% 1.6% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.5
8-12 9.1% 1.1% 1.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-13 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-15 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 4.3% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 94.6 1.1%