Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#328
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#304
Pace57.0#362
Improvement-1.3#245

Offense
Total Offense-10.1#360
First Shot-9.1#358
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#252
Layup/Dunks-7.9#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#251
Freethrows-2.0#300
Improvement+0.5#143

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#25
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#283
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement-1.8#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 8.6% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 37.2% 43.0% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 50.0% 56.6% 28.4%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.4% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 7.7% 25.1%
First Four7.4% 8.1% 5.1%
First Round3.4% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 411 - 1012 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 72   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -12.6 -13.6 +0.5
  Nov 13, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -2.1 -12.6 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 128   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 8%     0 - 3 -20.7 -31.3 +2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 285   @ Boston University W 60-58 27%     1 - 3 -1.9 -3.4 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 66   @ Georgetown L 41-66 3%     1 - 4 -13.6 -17.2 -0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 65-52 81%     2 - 4 -6.7 +1.8 -5.6
  Dec 08, 2024 360   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 57%     3 - 4 -10.2 -6.2 -3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 50-43 49%     4 - 4 -3.3 -19.7 +17.2
  Dec 18, 2024 297   Manhattan L 66-80 51%     4 - 5 -24.7 -8.3 -17.8
  Jan 03, 2025 358   Chicago St. L 52-64 76%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -29.9 -16.8 -15.2
  Jan 05, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson L 59-71 58%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -24.5 -21.5 -3.0
  Jan 10, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. W 62-57 19%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +3.8 +2.1 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 62-54 77%    
  Jan 20, 2025 341   St. Francis (PA) W 63-59 64%    
  Jan 24, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst W 59-57 56%    
  Jan 26, 2025 341   @ St. Francis (PA) L 60-62 41%    
  Jan 30, 2025 313   @ Stonehill L 57-62 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 345   Le Moyne W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 312   LIU Brooklyn W 58-57 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 13, 2025 345   @ Le Moyne L 61-63 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 313   Stonehill W 60-59 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 358   @ Chicago St. W 60-58 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 312   @ LIU Brooklyn L 55-60 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. L 55-58 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 6.8 4.4 0.6 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.0 5.4 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.2 7.0 0.9 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 5.1 8.0 1.6 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.3 1.8 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.5 1.7 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.5 0.9 0.1 6.4 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.5 9.3 14.8 17.0 17.1 14.8 9.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-3 95.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
12-4 78.3% 1.7    0.9 0.7 0.1
11-5 36.8% 1.9    0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0
10-6 7.8% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 13.6% 13.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.7% 21.6% 21.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
12-4 2.2% 20.3% 20.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.8
11-5 5.1% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0 4.1
10-6 9.9% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6 8.4
9-7 14.8% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 1.5 13.4
8-8 17.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.2 15.9
7-9 17.0% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 1.0 16.0
6-10 14.8% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.7 14.1
5-11 9.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.0
4-12 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-13 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Lose Out 0.1%