Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.2#353
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#310
Pace62.9#321
Improvement+0.8#155

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#338
First Shot-3.6#285
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#340
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#242
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement+1.4#112

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#341
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#363
Layups/Dunks-4.0#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#188
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-0.6#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 6.0% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 9.2% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 100.0% 86.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 4.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 6.0% 2.7%
First Round0.8% 2.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 59-76 5%     0 - 1 -11.8 -5.2 -7.8
  Nov 06, 2024 331   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 31%     1 - 1 -3.1 -0.7 -2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 355   Canisius W 62-52 61%     2 - 1 -6.1 -12.3 +7.5
  Nov 16, 2024 236   @ Columbia L 63-77 14%     2 - 2 -15.8 -7.3 -9.9
  Nov 24, 2024 292   @ Air Force L 48-82 21%     2 - 3 -38.8 -17.1 -28.4
  Nov 27, 2024 112   @ California L 55-81 5%     2 - 4 -20.3 -12.6 -9.7
  Nov 30, 2024 335   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 32%     3 - 4 -2.4 -0.9 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2024 67   @ San Francisco L 59-87 2%     3 - 5 -17.4 -3.8 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 290   Lafayette L 73-77 36%     3 - 6 -13.6 +4.8 -18.8
  Dec 15, 2024 131   @ Kent St. L 57-82 6%     3 - 7 -20.8 -6.6 -16.2
  Dec 18, 2024 302   @ Binghamton L 60-62 24%     3 - 8 -7.7 -9.5 +1.6
  Dec 22, 2024 43   @ West Virginia L 46-67 1%     3 - 9 -6.8 -13.8 +5.4
  Jan 03, 2025 321   Stonehill W 76-69 46%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -5.2 -1.9 -3.3
  Jan 05, 2025 199   Central Connecticut St. L 50-62 20%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -16.4 -13.0 -5.5
  Jan 10, 2025 333   @ St. Francis (PA) L 59-73 31%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -22.2 -9.0 -15.3
  Jan 12, 2025 356   @ Le Moyne L 63-79 43%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -27.4 -11.2 -17.8
  Jan 18, 2025 349   @ Wagner W 69-65 39%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -6.3 +3.4 -9.1
  Jan 20, 2025 318   @ LIU Brooklyn L 63-72 OT 27%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -16.0 -10.2 -5.6
  Jan 24, 2025 349   Wagner W 71-66 58%     6 - 13 3 - 4 -10.2 +6.2 -15.5
  Jan 26, 2025 318   LIU Brooklyn W 85-80 2OT 45%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -6.9 -3.3 -4.4
  Jan 30, 2025 333   St. Francis (PA) W 62-58 50%     8 - 13 5 - 4 -9.1 -14.5 +5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 67-60 29%     9 - 13 6 - 4 -0.6 -3.2 +3.2
  Feb 06, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. L 78-85 45%     9 - 14 6 - 5 -19.0 -1.9 -16.6
  Feb 08, 2025 356   Le Moyne W 82-78 62%     10 - 14 7 - 5 -12.3 +2.9 -15.1
  Feb 13, 2025 199   @ Central Connecticut St. L 57-71 9%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   @ Stonehill L 64-70 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 69-65 66%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 3.0 5.8 0.8 9.6 2nd
3rd 5.3 24.9 5.8 0.1 36.1 3rd
4th 1.9 25.2 8.9 0.0 35.9 4th
5th 6.3 7.4 0.1 13.8 5th
6th 3.5 0.3 3.8 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 12.0 38.2 36.9 11.7 1.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 24.4% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 1.2% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-6 11.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.6 11.1
9-7 36.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 1.2 35.6
8-8 38.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.9 37.3
7-9 12.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 16.0 3.0 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 8.2%