Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.5 325
Expected Predictive Rating -12.8 343
Pace 64.5 290
Improvement -3.4 316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 302 D+ C+ D D C
Defense D 324 D+ C- D- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 145 D- 50% 348 -2.7 277
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 100 C+ 39% 125 +0.9 131
Three Pointers 38% 241 C 34% 190 -1.5 238
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 203 D+ -3.2 292
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 280
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 147 B- 1.09 94 C+ 0.34 107
Turnovers D 19.0% 310
Freethrows D 0.27 300 D+ 69% 280 D 0.19 312
Total Offense D -4.9 302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 30 C+ 57% 153 +3.1 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 279 C- 40% 244 -0.9 117
Three Pointers 38% 270 D- 38% 330 +0.5 214
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 321 D+ +1.8 252
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 267
Second Chance C 30.2% 172 D+ 1.10 287 C- 0.33 237
Turnovers D- 14.1% 330
Freethrows F+ 0.38 340 C- 73% 234 F+ 0.27 343
Total Defense D -5.6 324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 267 16.7 71
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 325 0.21 307
Improvement -2.7 #317 -0.7 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 14% 43% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 23% 8% 26%
First Four7% 9% 6%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 16.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 49 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D F+ -11 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 52 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 A A- F B- +4 B- C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 151 @Fordham L 61 - 63 10% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C +0 D- A C- C+ +1 B+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 238 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 19% +1  51% 0 - 4 C- -2 F -12 F C+ F A- +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 68 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 3% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -6 C +0 C+ C F D+ -5 D+ C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 317 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 36% -8  6% 1 - 5 C- -5 A +11 A+ B- D- F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 107 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -19 F -12 F F F D+ -5 B C F
 Wed, Dec 17 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 70% +6  94% 2 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 D A A+ D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 353 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 51% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 D- B+ A+ D- -8 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 341 Stonehill L 60 - 69 67% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -24 F+ -8 D- B F F -17 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 356 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 76% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -11 F C D+ D- -9 D- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 298 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 51% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -12 D -4 C- B- C D- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 330 @New Haven L 74 - 80 40% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -14 A- +10 A A F F -24 F A F+
 Mon, Jan 19 331 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 41% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -15 D -5 F C B- F+ -11 D- F A
 Fri, Jan 23 299 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 29% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C -0 A- D+ F D -7 A F F
 Thu, Jan 29 291 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 49% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F+ -17 F -18 F C- C+ C -0 C B D
 Sat, Jan 31 331 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 64% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D -11 D -5 F C+ B D -6 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 299 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 51% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C +1 A- B+ F F+ -10 F B- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 291 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 28% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -21 D- -8 F C+ C- F -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 213 LIU Brooklyn L 57 - 67 33% -1  31% 5 - 15 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -19 D- F F B- +3 B- B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 341 @Stonehill W 68 - 57 45% +4  62% 6 - 15 4 - 9 C+ +2 C- -2 F A D+ B +4 A+ F C
 Mon, Feb 16 213 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 76 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 298 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 70 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 356 @St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 75 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 330 New Haven W 66 - 63 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 Chicago St. W 75 - 69 72%
Totals 8 - 18 6 - 12 -10 D -5 B+ D+ C D -6 C D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C+ C D+ 40% 44% 38% C D+ C+ B- C+ D D D+ D D C+ C- D- D+ 45% 18% 38% D D+ C D+ C- D- F+ C- F+
1.02 50% 39% 34% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.1 .34 19% .27 69% .19 1.17 57% 40% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 73% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B D C D A C- A F+ C- A+ C- C+ 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C+ F A+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A C+ A+ A- F F+ F F B- D+ A+ B B 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C B- F A+ B-
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- A- A- A C- F F F C+ A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D B+ A+ F C F F C F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F C- B+ C+ F B- F+ C A- B C A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C C- C- B- C+ 37% 21% 42% B- C+ C- C C F B C+ B D+ D+ B- D- D+ 42% 25% 33% C D+ B+ F C- D+ F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A+ F+ B- D- A+ C- A+ F A+ F F F+ 37% 23% 40% C F+ F D- F F+ F C+ F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +17 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F 33% 23% 44% D+ F D+ F F F B A+ A D+ C A+ A+ A- 50% 12% 38% F B F+ A C F F C F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% D+ D D- A+ A A+ A+ F B+ D+ F F B- F 42% 20% 38% D- F B- A+ A+ C D- A D+
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +8 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B- F C- A+ D- 45% 23% 32% D D- C+ A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D- A+ A F B- 47% 26% 26% F C C- A- B- F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill F+ F D+ A F+ 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B C B F F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F C- C- C- F F A- F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F C D+ C F D D- D C- C D 40% 17% 44% F+ D- C- F+ D D+ F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D+ 53% 8% 39% A- C- D+ A B- C F+ F F D- C D F F+ 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven A- A- B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F+ A F F D- F F F A+ F F 28% 15% 57% C- F C A+ A F+ C- F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D D+ C- D- F 36% 36% 29% F F F A+ C B- C- A+ B F+ A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D- F F F A F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C B- A A A- 45% 16% 39% B- A- C+ F+ D+ F F+ F F D A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D+ A F D- F F F C F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C- C C- C+ A+ F A C D A+ B+ B 43% 13% 43% F C A+ F B D D B- D+
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F F B F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ B- C+ B B+ A+ A D B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A+ B+ B- A 43% 22% 35% C A- D A+ B+ F B A- A- F+ F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% D- F B C B- C+ D D D-
1.15 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F C- B+ C+ C- D+ F D F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B+ F D- F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43
Feb
12		 LIU Brooklyn F D C+ F D- 38% 21% 40% D D- F F F F B- F D B- D- C+ A+ B+ 57% 17% 26% F B- A+ C- B+ D F B F
0.81 50% 40% 26% -7 0 0.87 24% 0.8 .19 24% .36 53% .19 0.95 65% 38% 8% -6 +2 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .45 62% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Stonehill C- C- F C+ F 36% 36% 28% F F A+ D- A D+ B A B+ B A+ C A A+ 36% 16% 48% C- A+ C- F F C D+ F D
1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25 0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 0.8 3.2 5th
6th 2.4 6.2 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 1.7 15.0 3.2 0.0 19.9 7th
8th 3.3 25.5 13.7 0.3 42.8 8th
9th 9.2 6.6 0.1 15.9 9th
10th 3.8 4.7 0.3 8.7 10th
Total 3.8 17.2 34.0 31.2 12.2 1.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 1.7% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.2 1.5
8-8 12.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 1.2 11.0
7-9 31.2% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 2.4 28.8
6-10 34.0% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 2.1 31.9
5-11 17.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.7 16.4
4-12 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.7
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 16.0 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 2.7%