IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wagner
Northeast
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.5	#343
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	55.1	#364
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-10.1	#362

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.4	#216

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.4%	25.6%	11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.6	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	30.8%	64.2%	30.3%
.500 or above in Conference	68.9%	84.6%	68.7%
Conference Champion	17.4%	33.2%	17.2%
Last Place in Conference	6.8%	1.0%	6.8%

First Four	10.3%	19.0%	10.1%
First Round	6.4%	17.7%	6.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 10	11 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	58	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	45-69	1%
Nov 07, 2025	101	@ Seton Hall	L	46-66	4%
Nov 11, 2025	164	@ Fordham	L	56-70	10%
Nov 16, 2025	304	@ Maryland Baltimore Co.	L	62-68	28%
Nov 22, 2025	69	@ Georgetown	L	49-72	2%
Nov 26, 2025	260	@ Manhattan	L	57-66	21%
Dec 02, 2025	40	@ Maryland	L	47-74	1%
Dec 17, 2025	360	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	61-54	73%
Jan 02, 2026	349	@ Chicago St.	L	59-62	41%
Jan 04, 2026	340	Stonehill	W	58-55	60%
Jan 08, 2026	344	St. Francis (PA)	W	60-57	60%
Jan 10, 2026	361	Mercyhurst	W	59-52	73%
Jan 17, 2026	363	@ New Haven	W	60-57	59%
Jan 19, 2026	354	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	60-62	45%
Jan 23, 2026	347	@ Le Moyne	L	61-64	41%
Jan 25, 2026	300	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	52-59	27%
Jan 29, 2026	305	Central Connecticut St.	L	55-56	48%
Jan 31, 2026	354	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	63-59	64%
Feb 05, 2026	347	Le Moyne	W	64-61	61%
Feb 07, 2026	305	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	53-59	30%
Feb 12, 2026	300	LIU Brooklyn	L	55-56	47%
Feb 14, 2026	340	@ Stonehill	L	55-58	40%
Feb 19, 2026	361	@ Mercyhurst	W	56-55	54%
Feb 21, 2026	344	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	57-60	41%
Feb 26, 2026	363	New Haven	W	63-54	76%
Feb 28, 2026	349	Chicago St.	W	62-59	61%
Projected Record						11 - 15	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	1.0	2.6	4.2	4.0	3.1	1.7		16.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.9	4.7	4.7	2.7	1.0	0.3	0.0		15.6	2nd
3rd									0.3	2.2	5.2	4.0	1.3	0.3	0.0				13.4	3rd
4th								0.2	2.0	4.9	3.3	0.8	0.1	0.0					11.2	4th
5th						0.0	0.1	1.5	4.7	3.3	0.5	0.0							10.0	5th
6th					0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	2.9	0.4	0.0								8.6	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.2	2.8	0.6	0.0									7.6	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.8	2.8	2.4	0.5	0.0										6.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.2	0.9	2.0	1.9	0.5	0.0											5.6	9th
10th	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.3	0.9	0.3	0.0												4.1	10th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.4	3.8	6.1	7.4	8.9	10.4	11.0	10.9	10.5	8.7	7.3	5.0	3.3	1.7			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	98.5%	1.7		1.6	0.1
15-1	92.1%	3.1		2.7	0.3	0.0
14-2	80.0%	4.0		3.1	0.8	0.0
13-3	58.0%	4.2		2.5	1.5	0.2	0.0
12-4	29.4%	2.6		1.0	1.2	0.4	0.0
11-5	9.2%	1.0		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	16.5%	16.5		11.1	4.3	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.7%		46.4%	46.4%		17.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9
15-1	3.3%		39.0%	39.0%		18.1															0.0	0.2	1.2	2.0
14-2	5.0%		32.7%	32.7%		17.2															0.0	0.1	1.6	3.3
13-3	7.3%		27.9%	27.9%		17.2																0.1	2.1	5.2
12-4	8.7%		19.2%	19.2%		16.7																0.0	1.7	7.0
11-5	10.5%		13.8%	13.8%		16.4																0.0	1.5	9.1
10-6	10.9%		8.9%	8.9%		16.2																	1.0	10.0
9-7	11.0%		5.6%	5.6%		16.2																	0.6	10.4
8-8	10.4%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																	0.4	10.0
7-9	8.9%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.3	8.7
6-10	7.4%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	7.3
5-11	6.1%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.1	6.0
4-12	3.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	3.7
3-13	2.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
2-14	1.2%																							1.2
1-15	0.5%																							0.5
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		11.4%	11.4%	0.0%	16.9														0.0	0.1	0.7	11.4	88.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%