St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.6#333
Expected Predictive Rating-10.8#329
Pace68.8#164
Improvement-0.3#209

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#321
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#328
Layup/Dunks-3.8#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#87
Freethrows-3.4#350
Improvement+0.2#181

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#320
First Shot-4.5#315
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks+0.6#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#351
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement-0.5#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.0% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 72.5% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 0.4% 5.3%
First Four6.7% 8.0% 6.0%
First Round2.5% 2.9% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Away) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 57-87 4%     0 - 1 -20.1 -13.7 -6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 31   @ Clemson L 62-88 1%     0 - 2 -8.9 -4.8 -3.4
  Nov 10, 2024 176   @ Campbell W 65-64 13%     1 - 2 +2.7 -3.2 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 65   @ Penn St. L 62-92 3%     1 - 3 -19.2 -14.5 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 265   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 24%     1 - 4 -11.3 -12.6 +1.0
  Nov 23, 2024 78   @ Georgetown L 65-82 4%     1 - 5 -7.3 -0.8 -6.3
  Nov 26, 2024 273   Lehigh W 88-78 43%     2 - 5 +1.3 +13.1 -11.7
  Dec 01, 2024 196   Radford L 70-79 27%     2 - 6 -13.3 +0.1 -14.4
  Dec 14, 2024 305   @ Niagara L 66-69 32%     2 - 7 -8.8 -2.7 -6.4
  Dec 17, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -34.7 -7.0 -26.8
  Dec 21, 2024 175   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 12%     2 - 9 -11.2 +1.5 -11.9
  Jan 03, 2025 199   Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 28%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -19.4 -7.8 -12.8
  Jan 05, 2025 321   Stonehill L 60-64 56%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -16.2 -11.7 -5.0
  Jan 10, 2025 353   Mercyhurst W 73-59 69%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -1.7 +3.5 -3.1
  Jan 12, 2025 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 38%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -3.6 +0.0 -3.6
  Jan 18, 2025 318   @ LIU Brooklyn L 51-64 36%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -20.0 -13.8 -8.0
  Jan 20, 2025 349   @ Wagner L 68-70 2OT 48%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -12.3 -8.8 -3.4
  Jan 24, 2025 318   LIU Brooklyn W 74-64 55%     5 - 13 3 - 4 -1.9 +2.4 -3.9
  Jan 26, 2025 349   Wagner L 66-68 67%     5 - 14 3 - 5 -17.2 -1.7 -15.8
  Jan 30, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst L 58-62 50%     5 - 15 3 - 6 -14.8 -17.3 +2.4
  Feb 06, 2025 356   Le Moyne W 86-78 71%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -8.3 +0.0 -8.6
  Feb 08, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 81-69 55%     7 - 15 5 - 6 +0.0 +7.6 -7.3
  Feb 13, 2025 321   @ Stonehill L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 199   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-73 13%    
  Feb 20, 2025 356   @ Le Moyne W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-73 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 74-68 74%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.0 0.8 1.8 2nd
3rd 3.0 7.4 0.8 11.2 3rd
4th 1.9 16.6 3.4 21.9 4th
5th 0.8 17.3 10.0 0.1 28.1 5th
6th 0.0 7.7 13.6 0.5 21.7 6th
7th 1.1 8.6 1.3 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 2.2 1.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.5 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 3.8 18.6 34.0 30.1 11.9 1.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.6% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.2 1.4
9-7 11.9% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 1.2 10.7
8-8 30.1% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 2.2 27.8
7-9 34.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 2.2 31.8
6-10 18.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.8 17.7
5-11 3.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 16.0 6.7 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 3.3%