Pre-tourney Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2025-26
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +9.2 64
Results Rating +9.6 65
Consistency 0.18 328
Pace 64.9 275
Improvement -2.6 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense B 63 B- B C+ A B
Defense B- 83 C+ A- D+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 104 C+ 59% 144 +2.0 105
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 288 C 39% 150 -2.1 284
Three Pointers 43% 130 B 37% 56 +3.3 72
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 75 B- +2.4 96
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 83
Second Chance B 35.2% 48 C+ 1.07 113 B 0.38 56
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.8% 36
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 285
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 117
Freethrows B+ 0.36 27 A- 79% 8 A 0.28 8
Total Offense B +5.7 63

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 257 B- 9.2% 90
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 343 F+ 9.0% 350
Three Pointers C- 82% 228 B- 0.5% 87
Total C- 53% 230 C 5.4% 171


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 C 57% 162 -2.5 97
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 37 D 42% 303 +3.0 355
Three Pointers 39% 237 C+ 33% 118 -1.6 115
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 39 C -0.1 174
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 139
Second Chance A+ 20.9% 2 D+ 1.10 285 A- 0.23 18
Turnovers from Steals D 7.4% 319
Other Turnovers C+ 7.7% 105
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 278
Freethrows B 0.26 56 B+ 69% 24 B 0.18 41
Total Defense B- +3.4 83

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 36% 7 D+ 8.1% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 27 D 2.2% 318
Three Pointers B- 80% 71 C+ 1.2% 91
Total A- 44% 10 D 3.9% 315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 210 18.3 313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 254 0.15 110
Consistency 0.14 302 0.14 302
Improvement +2.9 57 -5.6 356

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 64 64 64
Results Rating Rank 65 65 65
Conference Record 12 - 8 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four5% n/a n/a
First Round3% n/a n/a
Second Round1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 6
Quad 26 - 38 - 9
Quad 38 - 116 - 10
Quad 43 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 100 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ B +4 B C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 134 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 84% +9  84% 2 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 B- A+ F A+ +14 C+ A A-
 Sat, Nov 15 140 Montana St. W 62 - 58 85% +2  68% 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F+ B+ A +10 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 84 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 69% +4  73% 4 - 0 B- +7 D -4 F+ B C+ A+ +12 A B B
 Mon, Nov 24 75 USC L 67 - 70 54% -2  19% 4 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 D+ B- F A- +8 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 34 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 32% -5  13% 4 - 2 C+ +3 C- -2 B- D- D+ B +5 D- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 83 @Butler W 77 - 68 46% +2  64% 5 - 2 A +19 B+ +8 D B A A +11 A C+ D
 Wed, Dec 10 121 Duquesne W 86 - 64 81% +12  98% 6 - 2 A +22 A- +10 B- A- A+ A+ +12 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 30 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 30% +6  94% 7 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 A C F A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 78 @Nevada L 66 - 81 44% -10  2% 7 - 3 0 - 1 C- -4 C+ +4 A- D+ F+ F+ -10 F A D-
 Tue, Dec 30 54 New Mexico W 62 - 53 55% -0  42% 8 - 3 1 - 1 A- +17 F+ -10 D F A+ A+ +27 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 51 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 31% -6  20% 8 - 4 1 - 2 B +11 A +13 A D B+ C -1 D+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 7 61 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 60% -7  14% 8 - 5 1 - 3 D -10 F+ -9 D- F+ D- C- -2 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Utah St. L 68 - 93 43% -19  0% 8 - 6 1 - 4 D- -14 C +1 D- A B+ F -17 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 105 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 56% -0  39% 8 - 7 1 - 5 C+ +4 C +1 B+ F D+ B- +3 C+ C+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 89 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 71% +6  95% 9 - 7 2 - 5 B +9 A +12 B+ A+ D+ C- -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 102 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 55% +10  72% 10 - 7 3 - 5 A+ +24 A +14 A+ D- A A +11 C+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 24 344 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  93% 11 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +27 A A+ A+ B +4 C B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 212 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 81% +9  85% 12 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +31 A +14 A A+ B A+ +18 A A- B+
 Fri, Jan 30 61 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 37% -6  14% 12 - 8 5 - 6 C- -4 B +7 C A C+ F -12 F A- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 78 Nevada W 91 - 87 OT 67% +8  91% 13 - 8 6 - 6 B +9 A +12 A- A+ B D+ -4 D+ D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 54 @New Mexico W 91 - 90 33% +1  54% 14 - 8 7 - 6 B+ +15 A+ +26 A+ B- B+ F -11 F A F
 Fri, Feb 13 105 UNLV L 83 - 86 OT 76% +9  90% 14 - 9 7 - 7 C -1 B +7 A D- C F+ -8 C F F
 Wed, Feb 18 33 @Utah St. L 56 - 75 23% -9  18% 14 - 10 7 - 8 C- -2 D+ -4 C- F B- C -1 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 212 San Jose St. W 84 - 69 91% +9  95% 15 - 10 8 - 8 B +9 B +7 A+ D A+ B- +3 A D F
 Tue, Feb 24 102 Wyoming W 72 - 62 75% +2  58% 16 - 10 9 - 8 B+ +12 C+ +3 D+ A+ D A +10 B+ A D
 Sat, Feb 28 133 @Fresno St. W 69 - 53 66% +7  90% 17 - 10 10 - 8 A +21 A- +10 B C- B+ A+ +14 A A+ F
 Tue, Mar 3 51 San Diego St. W 86 - 77 54% +11  98% 18 - 10 11 - 8 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A+ F C- -3 C- A+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 89 @Colorado St. W 78 - 67 49% +8  96% 19 - 10 12 - 8 A +20 A+ +16 B A+ D B+ +6 B- A D-
 Wed, Mar 11 212 San Jose St. L 74 - 84 87% -4  25% 19 - 11 D- -13 D- -6 F A- C D -6 D D+ F
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 8 +9 B +6 A+ B- B B- +3 B A- A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ C B B- 41% 28% 43% B B- B C+ B C+ B+ A- A B- C D C+ C 35% 26% 39% B+ C+ A+ D+ A- D+ B B+ B
1.17 59% 39% 37% +2 +1 1.09 35% 1.1 .38 16% .36 79% .28 1.04 57% 42% 33% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.1 .23 15% .26 69% .25
Nov
8
Utah Valley A+ A+ F A- A+ 51% 14% 35% B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ B F+ F A+ B- 45% 22% 33% A- B A+ F C+ B- F F F
1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41 1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32
Nov
11
UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F+ F A+ B- 42% 19% 40% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ F+ C C- D+ 33% 39% 29% A+ C+ A+ F A A- F A+ C+
1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34 0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17
Nov
15
Montana St. D- D- F D+ F 27% 16% 58% D+ F+ F D F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A B- B- D B- 25% 36% 40% A B B A+ A+ D+ B A+ A
0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36 0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11
Nov
18
Wichita St. D F F A F 44% 22% 33% A- F+ C+ A- B C+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A+ 40% 29% 31% B- A B- B B B D C D+
0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28 0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25
Nov
24
USC D+ D A+ F D- 50% 10% 40% A+ D+ B C+ B- F F A+ D+ A- A+ D+ F C- 30% 28% 42% A- C A+ A A+ B- A+ A A+
0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18 1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19
Nov
25
North Carolina St. C- F A+ B B- 24% 9% 67% C B- B+ F D- D+ A+ D A+ B C- F F F+ 39% 20% 41% B D- A+ A+ A+ B- D- C- D-
1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 +1 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38 1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30
Dec
6
Butler B+ C- F F D- 54% 23% 23% B D A+ F B A A+ A+ A+ A B- C- A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C A A+ F C+ D A A+ A+
1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35 1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17
Dec
10
Duquesne A- F F A+ B+ 35% 31% 35% D B- D+ A+ A- A+ C A+ A- A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 45% B+ A+ A+ F B+ D+ B A+ A-
1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29 0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18
Dec
14
St. Mary's C+ B- A+ C+ A 36% 26% 38% C- A D A+ C F B- A+ A- A+ A B- A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% B A+ A+ A A+ D+ F D+ F
0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22 0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34
Dec
20
Nevada C+ B C+ B- B+ 45% 13% 43% B+ A- A+ F D+ F+ A+ F A+ F+ D F F F 40% 40% 20% A F A+ F+ A D- F D F
1.06 61% 40% 35% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38 1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49
Dec
30
New Mexico F+ B- F F D- 33% 15% 52% B D D F F A+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D- B+ A+ A
0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
3
San Diego St. A A C+ C A 30% 15% 55% C+ A C+ F D B+ A A+ A+ C B+ F F D+ 44% 24% 32% D- D+ A+ F C D+ F+ A+ C-
1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34 1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26
Jan
7
Grand Canyon F+ C F+ F D- 30% 30% 40% D+ D- D F F+ D- A+ A A+ C- C- F B- D- 52% 13% 35% F D- C A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+
0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37 1.11 61% 71% 32% +4 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16
Jan
10
Utah St. C F A+ F+ F+ 37% 14% 49% B+ D- A B A B+ A+ B A+ F D+ D+ D D+ 43% 11% 46% C C- F+ F F D D D- D-
1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36 1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28
Jan
13
UNLV C B+ A+ F B 56% 22% 22% B B+ D- F F D+ A B+ A B- D D+ D+ D+ 31% 33% 35% A+ C+ D A- C+ C F+ D+ F+
1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34 1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30
Jan
16
Colorado St. A F+ A+ B+ B+ 27% 11% 61% B B+ A- A A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ F F 27% 20% 52% A- F B+ A+ A+ A+ B F D+
1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41 1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28
Jan
20
Wyoming A B A+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% A- A+ C- F D- A F A+ D A B+ F A C+ 41% 18% 41% B C+ A+ D- A C+ C- C- D+
1.25 64% 50% 41% +8 +2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 12% .23 100% .23 1.00 50% 75% 28% 0 +1 1.02 23% 1.1 .27 17% .33 78% .26
Jan
24
Air Force A+ B- F+ A+ A 43% 17% 40% B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B A+ F D- C- 34% 23% 43% A- C A+ F B+ D+ A A+ A
1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31 0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12
Jan
27
San Jose St. A A- A+ F B+ 74% 2% 24% A+ A A A+ A+ B A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A 24% 33% 43% B A A+ F A- B+ D A+ B
1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32 0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18
Jan
30
Grand Canyon B D+ F D+ D 49% 7% 44% A+ C B A+ A C+ A+ B A+ F F+ B+ F F 48% 22% 30% C- F A+ F A- D- F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34 1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3
Nevada A A+ C+ D B+ 42% 10% 48% B+ A- B A+ A+ B A+ A- A+ D+ D- D D+ D- 33% 33% 33% A- D+ A+ F D+ D- A+ A A+
1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43 1.17 63% 42% 37% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20
Feb
7
New Mexico A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B- A+ B C B- B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 48% 10% 42% D F C- A+ A F D+ C+ C-
1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46 1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24
Feb
13
UNLV B B F A+ A 44% 19% 38% B- A C- F D- C B A+ A+ F+ A- D- F D 25% 34% 41% A+ C C+ F F F A+ F A+
1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36 1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16
Feb
18
Utah St. D+ F A C C- 39% 18% 43% B- C- A- F F B- F A- F C D- C- F+ D 40% 17% 43% B+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A B- A
0.93 42% 44% 33% -5 0 0.92 38% 0.4 .15 20% .19 78% .15 1.25 68% 38% 40% +8 +1 1.19 24% 1.7 .40 12% .24 69% .17
Feb
21
San Jose St. B B A+ A A 48% 8% 44% A- A+ F A- D A+ C A+ B B- C- F+ A+ A 27% 36% 38% B+ A A- F D F A+ F A+
1.28 67% 75% 41% +12 +2 1.30 26% 1.3 .35 12% .29 88% .26 1.05 60% 45% 19% -5 -3 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 9% .12 100% .12
Feb
24
Wyoming C+ A+ F F C- 34% 26% 40% F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D C- A+ A A F A+ A B 33% 16% 51% B+ B+ A+ D- A D A+ C- A+
1.13 81% 25% 21% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.7 .65 19% .37 89% .33 0.97 69% 25% 28% -3 0 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .16 78% .13
Feb
28
Fresno St. A- B A- B- A- 18% 22% 59% F+ B A+ F C- B+ F B F+ A+ F D- A+ B 20% 45% 35% A+ A A A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+
1.15 67% 45% 34% +4 -2 1.06 43% 0.6 .28 15% .16 75% .12 0.88 70% 45% 18% -3 -4 0.88 21% 0.6 .12 13% .17 67% .12
Mar
3
San Diego St. A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 19% 58% D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ C- F D+ D D 28% 42% 30% A+ C- A+ F A+ F C F D
1.26 50% 57% 48% +14 -1 1.28 48% 1.8 .84 25% .65 79% .51 1.13 73% 41% 38% +7 -3 1.09 7% 1.5 .11 10% .33 85% .28
Mar
7
Colorado St. A+ A- A+ F+ B 37% 21% 42% C+ B A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ B+ D+ C- B+ B+ 49% 11% 40% F+ B- A+ D A D- A- A+ A+
1.27 69% 56% 28% +4 0 1.09 46% 1.5 .68 18% .50 80% .40 1.09 65% 40% 32% +2 +2 1.11 20% 1.2 .23 15% .27 64% .17
Mar
11
San Jose St. D- F F F 53% 0% 47% A+ F B- A A- C A+ A A+ D C- F+ C- D+ 31% 24% 45% D D A F D+ F F A+ D+
1.06 36% 23% -20 +4 0.70 38% 1.4 .51 17% .52 83% .43 1.20 59% 46% 36% +4 -1 1.07 25% 1.6 .39 9% .38 63% .24




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 5.9% 5.9% 11.1 0.0 0.2 5.0 0.7 94.1 5.9%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 11.1 94.1 5.9%