Preseason Rankings
Big Sky
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 Montana St. 25.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 +0.7      0.0 163 +0.7 144 65.2 261 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Montana 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -1.6      +0.1 160 -1.7 228 67.6 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
194 Northern Colorado 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2.2      +0.4 156 -2.5 261 70.8 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
217 Portland St. 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 10 - 8 -3.1      -3.6 278 +0.4 148 70.2 117 0.0 1 0.0 1
239 Idaho 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -4.3      +0.1 159 -4.4 308 66.0 231 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 Northern Arizona 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.0      -1.6 220 -3.4 286 66.6 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Eastern Washington 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -5.2      -1.7 223 -3.5 289 67.6 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
279 Sacramento St. 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -6.5      -3.8 285 -2.7 268 64.2 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Weber St. 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.7      -3.5 276 -3.2 283 64.6 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
287 Idaho St. 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.1      -4.5 301 -2.7 264 65.3 260 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Montana St. 3.0 34.3 19.4 13.2 9.8 7.7 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.9 1.0
Montana 4.0 20.3 16.8 13.9 11.1 10.4 8.0 7.1 5.6 4.2 2.6
Northern Colorado 4.3 17.4 15.1 13.7 12.0 10.1 9.2 7.6 6.3 5.3 3.3
Portland St. 4.7 13.2 13.4 13.0 12.1 10.6 9.9 8.8 7.5 6.7 4.8
Idaho 5.1 10.6 11.2 11.6 11.1 11.4 11.0 10.0 9.5 7.8 5.8
Northern Arizona 5.6 7.5 9.3 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.6 10.2 8.7
Eastern Washington 5.7 6.5 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.2 10.6 9.0
Sacramento St. 6.3 4.9 5.9 8.0 8.6 9.9 10.9 11.7 12.8 13.3 13.9
Weber St. 6.4 4.3 6.0 7.7 8.7 9.4 10.9 12.1 12.7 14.1 14.2
Idaho St. 6.8 3.2 4.9 6.6 7.4 8.9 10.6 12.1 13.7 14.9 17.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Montana St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.2 8.9 10.9 12.1 11.8 11.5 10.1 7.3 4.2 1.5
Montana 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.7 8.5 9.4 10.7 11.2 11.0 9.9 8.2 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.4
Northern Colorado 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.2 5.5 7.4 9.0 10.1 11.1 11.0 10.1 9.4 7.3 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.5
Portland St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.4 5.6 6.6 8.5 9.3 10.4 11.3 10.5 9.7 8.0 5.8 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2
Idaho 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.9 6.2 8.2 9.8 10.5 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.4 6.4 4.7 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1
Northern Arizona 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.8 9.1 10.3 10.7 11.3 9.8 8.8 7.0 5.3 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Eastern Washington 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.4 7.8 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.2 9.5 8.3 6.3 5.1 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
Sacramento St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.9 5.8 8.0 9.6 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.0 8.0 6.9 5.4 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Weber St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.2 8.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.6 9.6 8.2 6.6 4.8 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Idaho St. 7 - 11 0.8 2.4 4.9 7.5 9.2 10.7 11.5 11.3 10.5 9.0 7.5 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Montana St. 34.3% 25.1 7.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Montana 20.3% 13.7 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Colorado 17.4% 11.9 4.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Portland St. 13.2% 8.6 3.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Idaho 10.6% 6.6 3.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 7.5% 4.5 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 6.5% 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sacramento St. 4.9% 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Weber St. 4.3% 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
Idaho St. 3.2% 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Montana St. 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 6.7 6.0 4.2 2.4 74.3 0.0%
Montana 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 4.3 3.4 2.3 84.5 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.4 86.1 0.0%
Portland St. 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.3 88.9 0.0%
Idaho 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 91.4 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 93.0 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.2 93.8 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 95.5 0.0%
Weber St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.5 95.8 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 96.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 25.7% 1.2% 25.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana 15.5% 1.2% 15.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Colorado 13.9% 1.2% 14.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 11.1% 1.3% 11.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 8.6% 1.4% 8.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Arizona 7.0% 1.3% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 6.2% 1.4% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.5% 1.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Weber St. 4.2% 0.9% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho St. 3.4% 1.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.7% 1.0 4.3 92.1 3.6
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0