Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#254
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#217
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#286
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 10.7% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 33.2% 55.8% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 49.2% 64.8% 45.0%
Conference Champion 7.5% 12.6% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 7.4% 15.1%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round6.9% 10.9% 5.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Neutral) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 113   Drake L 57-65 21%    
  Nov 11, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 63-89 1%    
  Nov 24, 2025 253   Cal Poly W 82-79 60%    
  Nov 26, 2025 228   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 03, 2025 155   South Dakota St. L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 06, 2025 215   @ North Dakota St. L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 09, 2025 69   @ Arizona St. L 64-80 8%    
  Dec 13, 2025 180   @ San Diego L 73-80 28%    
  Dec 18, 2025 271   Southern Utah W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 20, 2025 214   @ Incarnate Word L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 01, 2026 183   @ Montana L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 03, 2026 147   @ Montana St. L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 08, 2026 281   Weber St. W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 10, 2026 287   Idaho St. W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 15, 2026 279   @ Sacramento St. L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 17, 2026 217   @ Portland St. L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 19, 2026 183   Montana L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 24, 2026 194   Northern Colorado W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 29, 2026 259   Eastern Washington W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 31, 2026 239   Idaho W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 05, 2026 287   @ Idaho St. L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 07, 2026 281   @ Weber St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 12, 2026 217   Portland St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 14, 2026 279   Sacramento St. W 71-66 64%    
  Feb 21, 2026 194   @ Northern Colorado L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 26, 2026 239   @ Idaho L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 28, 2026 259   @ Eastern Washington L 70-73 41%    
  Mar 02, 2026 147   Montana St. L 68-71 41%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.1 4.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.1 2.5 0.4 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 3.8 1.7 0.3 10.2 9th
10th 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 8.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.6 7.8 9.1 10.3 10.7 11.3 9.8 8.8 7.0 5.3 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 94.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 81.9% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.2% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.9% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 4.5 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 87.6% 87.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 45.9% 45.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.0% 42.3% 42.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.0% 33.6% 33.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.8% 24.4% 24.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.8
13-5 5.3% 18.4% 18.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.3
12-6 7.0% 16.3% 16.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 5.8
11-7 8.8% 10.6% 10.6% 16.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 7.9
10-8 9.8% 7.7% 7.7% 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 9.0
9-9 11.3% 4.0% 4.0% 17.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.8
8-10 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 17.6 0.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 17.2 0.0 0.2 10.1
6-12 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.1
5-13 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 93.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%