IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#281
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.6	#280
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#276

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.2%	8.7%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	14.3	14.9

.500 or above	24.1%	51.6%	21.9%
.500 or above in Conference	36.3%	57.9%	34.6%
Conference Champion	4.3%	9.1%	4.0%
Last Place in Conference	20.9%	10.4%	21.8%

First Four	0.9%	0.6%	1.0%
First Round	4.1%	8.8%	3.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 8	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	89	@ Utah	L	63-78	7%
Nov 12, 2025	54	@ Utah St.	L	61-81	3%
Nov 15, 2025	92	@ UC Irvine	L	61-76	8%
Nov 19, 2025	200	Campbell	L	66-67	45%
Nov 22, 2025	190	Texas Arlington	L	69-71	44%
Nov 29, 2025	300	UMKC	W	66-62	63%
Dec 03, 2025	318	Oral Roberts	W	73-68	68%
Dec 06, 2025	149	@ St. Thomas	L	66-76	19%
Dec 10, 2025	300	@ UMKC	L	63-65	43%
Dec 17, 2025	118	@ Utah Valley	L	62-74	14%
Dec 20, 2025	269	Utah Tech	W	70-68	57%
Jan 01, 2026	217	Portland St.	L	67-68	48%
Jan 03, 2026	279	Sacramento St.	W	68-65	59%
Jan 08, 2026	254	@ Northern Arizona	L	66-71	35%
Jan 10, 2026	194	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-76	26%
Jan 15, 2026	259	Eastern Washington	W	70-69	55%
Jan 17, 2026	239	Idaho	W	70-69	52%
Jan 22, 2026	183	@ Montana	L	65-73	26%
Jan 24, 2026	147	@ Montana St.	L	62-72	19%
Jan 31, 2026	287	Idaho St.	W	68-65	61%
Feb 02, 2026	279	@ Sacramento St.	L	65-68	39%
Feb 05, 2026	194	Northern Colorado	L	71-73	45%
Feb 07, 2026	254	Northern Arizona	W	69-68	54%
Feb 12, 2026	239	@ Idaho	L	67-72	32%
Feb 14, 2026	259	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-72	36%
Feb 19, 2026	147	Montana St.	L	65-69	36%
Feb 21, 2026	183	Montana	L	68-70	44%
Feb 28, 2026	287	@ Idaho St.	L	65-68	42%
Mar 02, 2026	217	@ Portland St.	L	64-71	30%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.4	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0		4.3	1st
2nd											0.1	1.2	2.1	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.0				6.0	2nd
3rd										0.3	1.8	3.2	2.0	0.5	0.0						7.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.9	4.1	1.9	0.4	0.0							8.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.3	4.4	2.0	0.3	0.0								9.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.6	5.0	2.6	0.2	0.0									10.9	6th
7th					0.0	0.7	2.9	5.5	2.6	0.4	0.0										12.1	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	5.5	2.4	0.3												12.7	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.9	4.1	5.3	2.1	0.3													14.1	9th
10th	0.5	1.6	3.4	4.2	3.1	1.1	0.2	0.0													14.2	10th

Total	0.5	1.6	3.8	6.2	8.2	10.5	11.1	11.1	10.6	9.6	8.2	6.6	4.8	3.3	2.1	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	98.5%	0.5		0.4	0.1
15-3	79.2%	0.8		0.6	0.2	0.0
14-4	59.3%	1.2		0.7	0.5	0.0	0.0
13-5	35.3%	1.1		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0
12-6	8.7%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1
11-7	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.3%	4.3		2.3	1.4	0.4	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1	0.2%		58.0%	58.0%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
16-2	0.5%		45.6%	45.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3
15-3	1.0%		34.4%	34.4%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0		0.7
14-4	2.1%		24.6%	24.6%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	1.6
13-5	3.3%		17.1%	17.1%		15.0														0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.7
12-6	4.8%		10.4%	10.4%		15.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	4.3
11-7	6.6%		9.6%	9.6%		17.4														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	6.0
10-8	8.2%		4.9%	4.9%		17.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	7.8
9-9	9.6%		4.9%	4.9%		17.7															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.2
8-10	10.6%		2.1%	2.1%		16.3															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.4
7-11	11.1%		0.9%	0.9%		17.1																0.0	0.1	11.0
6-12	11.1%		0.4%	0.4%		18.3																	0.1	11.0
5-13	10.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.4
4-14	8.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
3-15	6.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
2-16	3.8%																							3.8
1-17	1.6%																							1.6
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		4.2%	4.2%	0.0%	15.8												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.5	1.5	95.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%