Preseason Rankings
Big West
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
92 UC Irvine 33.7%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 5 +5.7      +0.9 134 +4.7 55 71.3 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 UC San Diego 18.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +2.6      +0.8 135 +1.8 119 64.9 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 UC Santa Barbara 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +2.2      +2.0 113 +0.2 158 64.3 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Hawaii 14.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +1.3      0.0 164 +1.3 123 64.8 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Cal St. Northridge 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -1.2      -0.7 186 -0.5 182 78.9 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Cal St. Bakersfield 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -3.9      -1.8 225 -2.1 244 65.9 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Cal Poly 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -4.9      -0.6 185 -4.2 306 84.6 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 UC Davis 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -5.1      -5.0 312 -0.1 170 67.5 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 UC Riverside 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.1      -2.3 237 -2.8 269 67.5 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 Long Beach St. 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.5      -2.8 251 -2.6 263 61.9 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 15 -10.8      -7.6 357 -3.2 281 69.9 124 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.4 44.0 21.3 13.4 8.6 5.4 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
UC San Diego 3.5 22.0 20.4 16.3 12.3 10.0 6.9 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5
UC Santa Barbara 3.7 19.5 19.2 16.9 13.5 10.0 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6
Hawaii 4.0 16.1 16.5 16.0 14.2 11.4 8.6 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.8
Cal St. Northridge 5.2 7.6 10.8 12.5 12.9 13.1 12.0 9.9 8.3 6.3 4.5 2.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.5 3.0 5.0 7.1 9.7 11.1 12.4 13.1 12.0 11.1 9.2 6.1
Cal Poly 6.9 2.2 4.3 5.6 8.3 10.0 11.5 12.5 13.2 13.5 11.4 7.6
UC Davis 7.0 1.9 4.1 5.4 7.7 9.2 11.4 12.7 13.4 13.9 11.8 8.6
UC Riverside 7.1 2.0 3.6 5.7 7.2 9.4 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.2 12.6 8.8
Long Beach St. 7.3 1.6 3.0 5.2 6.8 9.0 10.4 12.6 13.4 14.8 13.9 9.3
Cal St. Fullerton 9.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 6.1 9.3 14.3 21.7 38.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.6 11.0 12.6 13.7 13.1 10.5 7.5 2.8
UC San Diego 13 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.3 6.9 8.6 10.1 11.1 11.7 11.4 9.8 7.5 5.1 2.6 0.7
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 4.2 5.7 7.4 9.0 10.6 11.5 12.0 10.4 9.2 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.6
Hawaii 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 5.2 6.5 8.6 10.3 10.7 11.5 11.0 9.6 7.7 5.3 3.5 1.4 0.3
Cal St. Northridge 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.5 4.8 6.6 7.9 9.6 10.9 10.6 10.5 9.1 8.3 6.0 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.2 6.9 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.1 10.4 9.0 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.8 6.3 8.3 10.0 10.4 11.5 10.2 9.6 8.4 6.1 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
UC Davis 8 - 12 0.4 1.0 2.7 4.4 6.7 8.4 9.7 11.1 11.3 10.5 9.1 7.6 5.9 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.5 6.8 8.7 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.7 9.5 7.7 5.8 4.1 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.9 9.8 10.7 11.0 10.9 10.1 8.7 7.2 5.3 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5 - 15 3.9 8.4 11.9 13.6 13.8 13.0 10.4 8.4 6.0 4.0 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 44.0% 33.5 8.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
UC San Diego 22.0% 15.0 5.7 1.2 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 19.5% 13.0 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 16.1% 10.5 4.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7.6% 4.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.0% 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 2.2% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 1.6% 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 33.7% 33.3% 0.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 8.2 12.5 6.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 66.3 0.5%
UC San Diego 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 6.7 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 81.9 0.2%
UC Santa Barbara 16.3% 16.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 5.5 4.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 83.7 0.2%
Hawaii 14.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 85.9 0.1%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 92.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 96.9 0.0%
Cal Poly 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 97.8 0.0%
UC Davis 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 97.9 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 98.3 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 33.7% 0.3% 33.6% 7.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 18.1% 0.2% 18.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 16.3% 0.2% 16.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 14.1% 0.1% 14.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 0.1% 7.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 2.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.8% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.8 1.0
2nd Round 14.6% 0.1 85.4 14.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0