IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.2	#126
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.3	#288
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.0	#113

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#158

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.3%	18.5%	11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.6	12.4	13.0

.500 or above	82.9%	88.1%	71.0%
.500 or above in Conference	83.9%	87.1%	76.6%
Conference Champion	19.5%	22.1%	13.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.2%	0.8%	2.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	16.3%	18.4%	11.3%
Second Round	2.2%	2.5%	1.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	0.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	159	San Jose St.	W	71-66	70%
Nov 11, 2025	279	@ Sacramento St.	W	70-64	70%
Nov 17, 2025	135	Loyola Marymount	W	70-67	62%
Nov 22, 2025	104	@ Nevada	L	62-68	31%
Nov 30, 2025	302	Lehigh	W	74-64	82%
Dec 04, 2025	264	Long Beach St.	W	72-61	82%
Dec 06, 2025	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	73-64	79%
Dec 13, 2025	118	Utah Valley	L	69-70	48%
Dec 17, 2025	306	@ Green Bay	W	76-69	74%
Dec 22, 2025	265	Portland	W	78-67	82%
Jan 01, 2026	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	73-63	80%
Jan 03, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	75-74	51%
Jan 08, 2026	255	UC Davis	W	72-62	81%
Jan 15, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	W	70-67	60%
Jan 17, 2026	141	Hawaii	W	69-65	62%
Jan 22, 2026	253	Cal Poly	W	84-74	80%
Jan 24, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	W	69-64	65%
Jan 29, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	66-69	39%
Jan 31, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	76-60	91%
Feb 05, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	W	69-65	64%
Feb 07, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	69-70	48%
Feb 12, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	W	72-68	64%
Feb 14, 2026	253	@ Cal Poly	W	81-77	62%
Feb 19, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	78-72	70%
Feb 22, 2026	141	@ Hawaii	L	66-68	43%
Feb 26, 2026	256	UC Riverside	W	75-65	80%
Feb 28, 2026	92	@ UC Irvine	L	66-72	30%
Mar 07, 2026	119	UC San Diego	W	69-66	58%
Projected Record						18 - 10	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	0.8	2.4	4.4	5.2	4.0	2.0	0.6		19.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	2.0	4.8	5.7	4.3	1.8	0.3				19.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.9	5.5	5.3	2.1	0.5	0.0					16.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.1	5.0	3.5	1.0	0.1							13.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.6	2.9	3.8	2.2	0.5	0.0								10.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.7	2.2	3.0	1.4	0.2										7.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	1.7	2.2	0.7	0.1											5.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	1.2	1.5	0.6	0.1												3.9	8th
9th					0.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.0													2.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1															1.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.6	11th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.7	2.6	4.2	5.7	7.4	9.0	10.6	11.5	12.0	10.4	9.2	7.0	4.3	2.0	0.6			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
19-1	100.0%	2.0		1.9	0.0
18-2	93.3%	4.0		3.5	0.5
17-3	73.5%	5.2		3.7	1.4	0.1
16-4	47.6%	4.4		2.2	1.8	0.3	0.0
15-5	23.4%	2.4		0.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
14-6	7.0%	0.8		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	19.5%	19.5		13.0	5.2	1.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.6%		78.9%	66.0%	12.9%	9.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0					0.1		37.9%
19-1	2.0%		61.8%	59.7%	2.1%	11.1						0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	0.4	0.0				0.8		5.3%
18-2	4.3%		46.1%	45.6%	0.5%	11.7											0.0	0.8	1.0	0.1	0.0			2.3		0.9%
17-3	7.0%		37.6%	37.6%		12.2											0.0	0.4	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0		4.4
16-4	9.2%		33.2%	33.2%		12.6												0.2	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.0		6.1
15-5	10.4%		23.0%	23.0%		12.9												0.0	0.7	1.2	0.4	0.1		8.0
14-6	12.0%		16.5%	16.5%		13.4												0.0	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.1	0.0	10.0
13-7	11.5%		11.6%	11.6%		13.7													0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	10.2
12-8	10.6%		6.1%	6.1%		13.8													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1		9.9
11-9	9.0%		3.3%	3.3%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.7
10-10	7.4%		2.5%	2.5%		15.6													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.2
9-11	5.7%		1.6%	1.6%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6
8-12	4.2%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	4.2
7-13	2.6%																							2.6
6-14	1.7%																							1.7
5-15	1.0%																							1.0
4-16	0.5%																							0.5
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		16.3%	16.1%	0.1%	12.6				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	2.3	5.5	4.6	2.7	0.7	0.1	83.7		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.9			14.2	28.4	14.7	7.1	7.1	14.2		7.1	7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	80.0%	10.3									20.0	20.0	40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	33.3%	11.0											33.3