IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.8	#336
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.9	#124
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.6	#357

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#281

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.6	14.8	14.5

.500 or above	2.8%	9.9%	2.0%
.500 or above in Conference	6.6%	15.1%	5.8%
Conference Champion	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	49.4%	31.1%	51.3%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.2%	0.7%	0.2%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 9	2 - 15
Quad 4	5 - 8	7 - 24

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	157	@ Wyoming	L	59-73	9%
Nov 10, 2025	91	@ California	L	61-80	4%
Nov 15, 2025	219	Pacific	L	67-71	35%
Nov 21, 2025	265	Portland	L	70-75	32%
Nov 22, 2025	149	St. Thomas	L	66-77	16%
Nov 23, 2025	194	Northern Colorado	L	68-77	22%
Nov 29, 2025	244	Pepperdine	L	70-73	39%
Dec 04, 2025	253	Cal Poly	L	78-81	41%
Dec 07, 2025	141	@ Hawaii	L	60-75	10%
Dec 13, 2025	322	@ Denver	L	67-71	37%
Dec 21, 2025	73	@ Oklahoma St.	L	63-85	3%
Dec 28, 2025	46	@ SMU	L	59-85	2%
Jan 01, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	L	63-73	20%
Jan 03, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	63-76	13%
Jan 08, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	59-75	8%
Jan 10, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	71-78	29%
Jan 15, 2026	255	@ UC Davis	L	62-71	23%
Jan 17, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	L	65-74	24%
Jan 22, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	L	65-67	43%
Jan 24, 2026	253	@ Cal Poly	L	75-84	23%
Jan 31, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	60-76	9%
Feb 05, 2026	256	UC Riverside	L	68-71	41%
Feb 07, 2026	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	67-71	38%
Feb 12, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	62-70	25%
Feb 14, 2026	92	@ UC Irvine	L	60-79	5%
Feb 19, 2026	255	UC Davis	L	65-68	42%
Feb 21, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	64-74	21%
Feb 28, 2026	141	Hawaii	L	63-72	23%
Mar 05, 2026	119	UC San Diego	L	62-72	20%
Mar 07, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	68-81	15%
Projected Record						7 - 23	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.7	3rd
4th										0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0								1.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	0.7	0.2	0.0									2.7	5th
6th								0.2	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.2											4.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.5	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.0											6.1	7th
8th					0.1	0.7	2.5	3.8	2.0	0.3	0.0												9.3	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	1.6	4.6	4.9	2.4	0.5	0.0													14.3	9th
10th		0.1	1.3	4.3	7.0	6.0	2.5	0.5	0.0														21.7	10th
11th	3.9	8.3	10.6	9.1	5.1	1.7	0.2	0.0															38.9	11th

Total	3.9	8.4	11.9	13.6	13.8	13.0	10.4	8.4	6.0	4.0	3.0	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0						Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	66.7%	0.0		0.0
16-4	71.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	30.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	13.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.5%	0.0		0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.2%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3	0.0%		33.3%	33.3%		13.0														0.0				0.0
16-4	0.0%		14.1%	14.1%		14.0															0.0			0.0
15-5	0.2%		26.0%	26.0%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
14-6	0.4%		9.4%	9.4%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
13-7	0.5%		4.6%	4.6%		14.0														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4
12-8	0.9%		3.8%	3.8%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
11-9	1.7%		1.7%	1.7%		14.5														0.0		0.0		1.6
10-10	3.0%		0.9%	0.9%		15.5																0.0	0.0	3.0
9-11	4.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
8-12	6.0%		0.5%	0.5%		15.5															0.0		0.0	6.0
7-13	8.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.4
6-14	10.4%																							10.4
5-15	13.0%																							13.0
4-16	13.8%																							13.8
3-17	13.6%																							13.6
2-18	11.9%																							11.9
1-19	8.4%																							8.4
0-20	3.9%																							3.9

Total	100%		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	99.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.7%