IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.1	#255
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#197
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.0	#312

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.1%	2.7%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.4	13.9

.500 or above	25.2%	34.4%	14.7%
.500 or above in Conference	33.7%	40.5%	25.8%
Conference Champion	1.9%	2.5%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	13.3%	9.7%	17.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	2.1%	2.8%	1.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2025	215	North Dakota St.	W	68-67	53%
Nov 09, 2025	265	@ Portland	L	69-72	41%
Nov 14, 2025	279	Sacramento St.	W	68-64	66%
Nov 18, 2025	104	@ Nevada	L	57-70	13%
Nov 21, 2025	84	@ Colorado	L	60-75	10%
Nov 24, 2025	233	Louisiana	W	68-66	56%
Dec 05, 2025	141	@ Hawaii	L	61-70	20%
Dec 13, 2025	28	@ Oregon	L	57-80	3%
Dec 17, 2025	121	Seattle	L	62-67	35%
Dec 21, 2025	287	@ Idaho St.	L	65-66	47%
Jan 01, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	73-74	47%
Jan 03, 2026	234	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-66	56%
Jan 08, 2026	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-72	19%
Jan 10, 2026	253	@ Cal Poly	L	76-79	39%
Jan 15, 2026	336	Cal St. Fullerton	W	71-62	77%
Jan 17, 2026	92	UC Irvine	L	64-72	26%
Jan 22, 2026	119	UC San Diego	L	64-69	35%
Jan 24, 2026	256	UC Riverside	W	70-67	60%
Jan 29, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	70-77	29%
Jan 31, 2026	234	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	65-69	36%
Feb 05, 2026	126	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-69	36%
Feb 07, 2026	253	Cal Poly	W	79-76	59%
Feb 12, 2026	119	@ UC San Diego	L	61-72	20%
Feb 14, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	66-63	61%
Feb 19, 2026	336	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	68-65	58%
Feb 21, 2026	256	@ UC Riverside	L	67-70	40%
Feb 26, 2026	141	Hawaii	L	64-67	39%
Mar 05, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	63-66	42%
Mar 07, 2026	92	@ UC Irvine	L	61-75	13%
Projected Record						11 - 18	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0			1.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0				4.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.4	1.5	1.8	1.2	0.4	0.0						5.4	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	2.3	2.8	1.3	0.3	0.0							7.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	0.9	3.2	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0								9.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.3	3.7	1.3	0.1										11.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.0	4.8	4.2	1.2	0.1	0.0										12.7	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.7	5.3	3.8	1.0	0.1												13.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	1.2	3.7	4.8	3.2	0.8	0.0													13.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.8	3.6	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.0														11.8	10th
11th	0.4	1.0	2.2	2.5	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0															8.6	11th

Total	0.4	1.0	2.7	4.4	6.7	8.4	9.7	11.1	11.3	10.5	9.1	7.6	5.9	4.1	3.1	2.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0				Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	95.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	80.7%	0.4		0.3	0.1
16-4	50.3%	0.5		0.3	0.3	0.0
15-5	22.2%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	6.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.9%	1.9		1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		71.4%	71.4%		11.6												0.0	0.0					0.0
18-2	0.2%		57.7%	57.7%		11.8												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1
17-3	0.6%		30.8%	30.8%		12.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.4
16-4	1.1%		17.1%	17.1%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.9
15-5	2.0%		19.2%	19.2%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.6
14-6	3.1%		11.2%	11.2%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	2.7
13-7	4.1%		7.7%	7.7%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.8
12-8	5.9%		6.0%	6.0%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	5.6
11-9	7.6%		1.2%	1.2%		19.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.5
10-10	9.1%		0.5%	0.5%		17.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.1
9-11	10.5%		0.4%	0.4%		17.8																0.0	0.0	10.5
8-12	11.3%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	11.3
7-13	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
6-14	9.7%																							9.7
5-15	8.4%																							8.4
4-16	6.7%																							6.7
3-17	4.4%																							4.4
2-18	2.7%																							2.7
1-19	1.0%																							1.0
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.1%	2.1%	0.0%	14.0												0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	97.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%