Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
208 Iona 15.2%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -2.7      -1.6 221 -1.1 205 69.7 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
213 Siena 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 12 - 8 -3.0      -1.1 207 -1.9 236 67.4 203 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Quinnipiac 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -3.5      -2.4 239 -1.1 203 77.3 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Marist 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 -4.2      -6.2 337 +1.9 117 61.5 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
251 Sacred Heart 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -4.8      -0.9 197 -3.9 299 74.5 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 Manhattan 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -4.8      -0.2 167 -4.6 314 68.6 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Merrimack 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -5.2      -5.9 331 +0.8 138 62.7 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Mount St. Mary's 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -5.9      -4.3 293 -1.6 223 68.3 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 St. Peter's 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.5      -7.2 353 -0.3 172 61.2 345 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Rider 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -8.4      -4.4 298 -4.0 301 63.2 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
320 Fairfield 2.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 12 -9.2      -5.0 313 -4.2 305 65.4 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
333 Niagara 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -10.4      -5.8 327 -4.6 315 63.3 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
352 Canisius 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -12.7      -6.4 340 -6.3 349 65.9 236 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Iona 4.2 23.1 15.4 12.6 10.1 8.8 6.9 6.2 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.5 1.4 1.0
Siena 4.3 22.2 16.1 12.3 10.2 8.8 7.3 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.0 2.3 1.6 1.0
Quinnipiac 5.5 9.3 11.4 11.7 11.5 10.5 9.6 8.9 7.6 6.5 5.0 3.8 2.8 1.4
Marist 5.3 14.7 12.3 11.0 9.7 9.4 8.1 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.0
Sacred Heart 5.3 13.6 12.3 11.2 9.9 9.3 8.8 7.8 6.8 6.1 5.1 4.1 3.1 2.0
Manhattan 5.4 13.6 12.1 11.3 9.8 9.2 8.2 7.7 6.9 6.4 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.0
Merrimack 6.8 5.2 6.6 7.7 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.2 9.5 8.2 7.6 5.5 3.6
Mount St. Mary's 6.2 9.1 9.2 8.8 9.2 9.5 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 6.4 6.2 4.6 3.2
St. Peter's 7.4 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.8 7.8 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.4 5.6
Rider 8.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.6 7.9 8.5 9.9 10.8 11.2 11.1 8.1
Fairfield 8.2 3.1 3.9 4.5 6.0 6.5 7.3 8.3 9.1 9.9 10.5 11.2 10.8 9.0
Niagara 9.0 1.7 2.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 6.2 7.4 8.4 9.1 10.8 12.7 13.8 14.4
Canisius 10.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.9 4.7 5.9 7.9 10.3 13.7 18.4 27.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 13 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.3 5.0 6.2 8.1 9.5 10.2 10.7 11.2 10.0 8.2 6.3 3.8 1.9 0.5
Siena 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.2 5.1 6.5 8.1 9.4 10.5 11.0 11.0 9.8 8.3 6.2 3.5 2.0 0.4
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.2 5.6 7.5 10.1 10.6 11.7 11.7 11.2 9.0 6.9 4.1 2.0 0.6
Marist 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.5 9.5 10.1 10.2 9.6 9.2 7.4 5.6 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.3
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.3 8.8 10.1 10.0 10.4 9.9 9.1 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2
Manhattan 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.1 5.6 7.5 9.0 9.3 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.1 7.4 5.2 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.2
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.9 7.1 8.7 10.6 11.0 11.0 10.8 9.5 7.4 5.3 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.3
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.8 7.5 9.0 9.7 10.7 9.8 9.8 8.3 6.9 5.2 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.0
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.0 9.4 10.6 10.5 9.8 8.9 7.6 6.2 4.6 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Rider 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.5 6.7 8.2 10.0 10.5 10.9 9.6 9.3 7.9 6.0 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.5 6.5 8.7 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.3 7.6 6.0 4.6 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.5 6.6 8.5 10.5 10.9 10.4 10.3 9.3 7.9 5.9 4.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 2.0 5.4 8.4 11.2 12.1 12.2 11.4 9.8 8.3 6.2 4.8 3.3 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 23.1% 15.9 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Siena 22.2% 15.3 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 9.3% 5.3 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marist 14.7% 9.5 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 13.6% 8.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 13.6% 8.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 5.2% 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9.1% 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 5.2% 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 3.1% 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Niagara 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Canisius 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.7 4.4 4.5 84.8 0.0%
Siena 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.3 4.5 4.2 85.5 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.2 3.8 3.7 87.5 0.0%
Marist 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.5 3.5 89.4 0.0%
Sacred Heart 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.3 3.8 90.2 0.0%
Manhattan 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.1 90.2 0.0%
Merrimack 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 2.7 92.0 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.2 3.4 92.8 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 2.4 95.6 0.0%
Rider 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 96.9 0.0%
Fairfield 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.8 97.5 0.0%
Niagara 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 98.4 0.0%
Canisius 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 15.2% 2.1% 15.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 14.5% 1.9% 14.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.5% 1.6% 12.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 10.6% 1.7% 10.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 9.8% 2.0% 9.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 9.8% 2.1% 9.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 8.0% 1.4% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.2% 1.9% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.4% 1.4% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 3.1% 1.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.5% 0.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.4% 1.0 7.6 85.7 6.7
2nd Round 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0