IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-12.7	#352
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#236
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.4	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.3	#349

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.7%	4.8%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.3	15.0	15.7

.500 or above	7.5%	31.5%	7.2%
.500 or above in Conference	12.9%	32.9%	12.7%
Conference Champion	0.6%	3.4%	0.6%
Last Place in Conference	36.9%	13.7%	37.1%

First Four	0.4%	0.7%	0.4%
First Round	0.6%	4.1%	0.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 12	9 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	65	@ Dayton	L	56-81	1%
Nov 08, 2025	124	@ St. Bonaventure	L	56-74	5%
Nov 12, 2025	362	Mercyhurst	W	69-61	75%
Nov 17, 2025	109	@ High Point	L	61-81	4%
Nov 21, 2025	360	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	70-64	70%
Nov 23, 2025	334	Binghamton	W	68-67	53%
Nov 29, 2025	337	Buffalo	W	73-72	54%
Dec 05, 2025	295	@ St. Peter's	L	59-67	24%
Dec 07, 2025	213	@ Siena	L	63-76	14%
Dec 13, 2025	285	@ Maine	L	61-70	22%
Dec 16, 2025	143	@ Rhode Island	L	64-81	8%
Dec 22, 2025	116	@ Duquesne	L	57-76	5%
Jan 02, 2026	320	Fairfield	L	67-68	48%
Jan 04, 2026	251	Sacred Heart	L	72-77	34%
Jan 09, 2026	252	@ Manhattan	L	67-78	18%
Jan 11, 2026	208	@ Iona	L	64-77	14%
Jan 14, 2026	333	Niagara	W	67-66	52%
Jan 17, 2026	270	Mount St. Mary's	L	66-70	38%
Jan 22, 2026	251	@ Sacred Heart	L	69-80	18%
Jan 24, 2026	320	@ Fairfield	L	65-71	28%
Jan 30, 2026	237	Marist	L	60-65	32%
Feb 01, 2026	213	Siena	L	66-73	29%
Feb 03, 2026	333	@ Niagara	L	64-69	33%
Feb 05, 2026	221	@ Quinnipiac	L	67-79	15%
Feb 13, 2026	208	Iona	L	67-74	28%
Feb 15, 2026	252	Manhattan	L	70-75	34%
Feb 20, 2026	309	@ Rider	L	63-70	28%
Feb 22, 2026	270	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	63-73	21%
Feb 27, 2026	258	Merrimack	L	61-66	36%
Mar 01, 2026	221	Quinnipiac	L	70-76	30%
Projected Record						9 - 21	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1				0.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0						1.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1							1.5	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.4	0.0								2.2	4th
5th										0.1	0.8	1.3	0.4	0.1									2.7	5th
6th									0.1	0.8	2.0	0.9	0.1	0.0									3.9	6th
7th								0.1	0.8	2.3	1.3	0.2	0.0										4.7	7th
8th							0.1	0.6	2.7	2.0	0.4	0.0											5.9	8th
9th						0.1	0.7	3.0	3.2	0.9	0.0												7.9	9th
10th					0.2	1.2	3.6	3.9	1.3	0.1													10.3	10th
11th				0.4	2.0	4.4	4.8	1.9	0.2														13.7	11th
12th		0.1	1.2	3.8	6.0	5.0	2.0	0.3	0.0														18.4	12th
13th	2.0	5.3	7.3	7.0	4.0	1.5	0.2	0.0															27.2	13th

Total	2.0	5.4	8.4	11.2	12.1	12.2	11.4	9.8	8.3	6.2	4.8	3.3	2.1	1.4	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1					Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-3	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-4	77.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-5	35.0%	0.1		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	15.2%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	6.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.1%		33.3%	33.3%		14.0															0.0			0.0
17-3	0.1%		12.5%	12.5%		14.0															0.0			0.0
16-4	0.2%		22.5%	22.5%		14.8															0.0	0.0		0.1
15-5	0.4%		14.7%	14.7%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
14-6	0.8%		13.4%	13.4%		18.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	0.7
13-7	1.4%		5.1%	5.1%		17.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3
12-8	2.1%		5.3%	5.3%		18.9																0.0	0.1	2.0
11-9	3.3%		3.7%	3.7%		18.9																0.0	0.1	3.1
10-10	4.8%		1.5%	1.5%		17.6																	0.1	4.7
9-11	6.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	6.2
8-12	8.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.3
7-13	9.8%																							9.8
6-14	11.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
5-15	12.2%																							12.2
4-16	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
3-17	11.2%																							11.2
2-18	8.4%																							8.4
1-19	5.4%																							5.4
0-20	2.0%																							2.0

Total	100%		0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	17.3															0.1	0.2	0.6	99.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%