Preseason Rankings
Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#309
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#308
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#298
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 8.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.6 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 17.2% 47.2% 16.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 62.2% 35.0%
Conference Champion 3.1% 9.4% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.0% 1.1% 13.2%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round2.9% 8.9% 2.8%
Second Round0.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 44   @ Virginia L 50-73 1%    
  Nov 05, 2025 82   @ Rutgers L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 18, 2025 38   @ Texas L 56-81 1%    
  Nov 20, 2025 1   @ Houston L 43-79 0.0%   
  Nov 25, 2025 361   Coppin St. W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 04, 2025 258   @ Merrimack L 59-65 30%    
  Dec 07, 2025 221   @ Quinnipiac L 67-75 24%    
  Dec 09, 2025 286   Bucknell W 68-66 55%    
  Dec 16, 2025 236   @ Delaware L 69-76 26%    
  Dec 22, 2025 60   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 55-76 3%    
  Dec 29, 2025 252   Manhattan L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 04, 2026 213   Siena L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 09, 2026 320   @ Fairfield L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 11, 2026 237   Marist L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 14, 2026 208   Iona L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 17, 2026 295   @ St. Peter's L 59-63 37%    
  Jan 19, 2026 251   Sacred Heart L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 24, 2026 270   @ Mount St. Mary's L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 30, 2026 252   @ Manhattan L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 01, 2026 295   St. Peter's W 62-60 57%    
  Feb 05, 2026 237   @ Marist L 58-65 28%    
  Feb 07, 2026 258   Merrimack L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 13, 2026 270   Mount St. Mary's W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 15, 2026 251   @ Sacred Heart L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 20, 2026 352   Canisius W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 22, 2026 333   Niagara W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 27, 2026 208   @ Iona L 64-73 24%    
  Mar 01, 2026 213   @ Siena L 64-72 25%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.5 0.8 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.6 4.0 1.9 0.1 10.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.7 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.1 12th
13th 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.1 13th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.5 6.7 8.2 10.0 10.5 10.9 9.6 9.3 7.9 6.0 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 69.3% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 40.9% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
13-7 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 96.6% 96.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 42.9% 42.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 25.4% 25.4% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.2% 29.1% 29.1% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 2.1% 18.5% 18.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7
14-6 3.3% 15.0% 15.0% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.8
13-7 4.7% 9.9% 9.9% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.2
12-8 6.0% 6.9% 6.9% 19.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.6
11-9 7.9% 3.8% 3.8% 18.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.6
10-10 9.3% 2.5% 2.5% 17.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
9-11 9.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.5
8-12 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.9
7-13 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-14 10.0% 10.0
5-15 8.2% 8.2
4-16 6.7% 6.7
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.5% 2.5
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 16.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%