Preseason Rankings
Missouri Valley
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Illinois St. 16.8%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +4.4      +4.4 65 0.0 165 64.9 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 Bradley 15.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 8 +4.3      +1.7 120 +2.5 105 65.1 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 Belmont 14.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +3.9      +3.3 89 +0.6 146 75.2 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Northern Iowa 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +3.7      +1.5 121 +2.2 110 63.6 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Drake 13.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3.5      +0.4 154 +3.1 90 53.2 365 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 Murray St. 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +2.1      +0.8 137 +1.3 126 63.1 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
138 Southern Illinois 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 10 +1.6      +0.5 148 +1.1 131 69.3 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Illinois-Chicago 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 +0.2      0.0 165 +0.3 153 72.0 71 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Indiana St. 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 12 -1.1      +1.3 127 -2.4 253 78.9 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Evansville 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -3.8      -4.0 290 +0.2 160 66.9 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
261 Valparaiso 0.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -5.4      -2.3 238 -3.1 277 69.3 138 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Illinois St. 4.0 21.2 15.8 13.1 12.1 9.3 8.4 6.9 5.5 3.9 2.6 1.2
Bradley 4.2 19.5 15.6 13.1 11.7 9.9 9.1 6.9 5.7 4.4 2.8 1.4
Belmont 4.3 17.9 14.9 13.0 11.4 10.0 9.0 7.7 6.4 4.7 3.2 1.6
Northern Iowa 4.4 16.9 14.5 12.9 12.1 10.5 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.8
Drake 4.6 15.6 13.8 12.4 11.8 10.9 9.5 8.0 7.1 5.2 3.8 1.8
Murray St. 5.3 10.2 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.1 8.7 7.6 5.3 3.3
Southern Illinois 5.5 9.5 9.7 10.3 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.3 9.3 8.6 6.6 3.9
Illinois-Chicago 6.3 5.7 7.1 8.2 9.3 10.0 10.5 11.3 11.5 10.9 9.2 6.3
Indiana St. 6.9 3.7 5.1 6.3 7.4 8.7 9.7 11.4 12.7 12.7 12.6 9.7
Evansville 8.3 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.9 5.2 6.9 9.4 12.1 15.5 19.6 21.1
Valparaiso 8.9 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.9 5.7 7.4 10.0 14.5 21.2 31.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.9 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.5
Bradley 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.5 7.4 9.0 9.9 10.5 11.2 9.9 8.7 7.1 5.1 3.1 1.4 0.4
Belmont 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.6 6.2 8.0 9.1 9.8 10.5 10.8 10.0 7.9 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.4
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 9.4 10.4 11.1 10.7 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.3
Drake 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.6 8.4 9.6 10.6 10.7 10.2 8.9 7.5 5.8 4.0 2.5 1.2 0.3
Murray St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.6 5.5 6.9 8.5 10.0 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.1 7.8 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.5 5.8 7.1 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.0 9.8 8.4 6.7 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Illinois-Chicago 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.9 7.9 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.6 9.3 8.4 6.3 4.8 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.3 6.2 7.9 9.5 10.3 10.6 10.4 9.3 7.8 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Evansville 7 - 13 1.0 3.3 5.7 8.5 10.7 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.0 7.7 6.2 4.7 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 14 2.0 5.5 8.7 11.3 11.9 12.4 11.4 9.7 8.0 6.4 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Illinois St. 21.2% 14.5 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bradley 19.5% 13.4 4.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Belmont 17.9% 12.3 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Iowa 16.9% 11.4 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drake 15.6% 10.6 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Murray St. 10.2% 6.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 9.5% 6.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 5.7% 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana St. 3.7% 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Evansville 1.2% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Valparaiso 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Illinois St. 16.8% 16.0% 0.8% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.2 5.3 6.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 83.2 1.0%
Bradley 15.8% 15.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 4.8 5.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 84.2 0.6%
Belmont 14.4% 13.8% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 4.6 5.1 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 85.6 0.8%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 13.4% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 4.1 5.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.0 0.7%
Drake 13.9% 13.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 3.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 86.1 0.5%
Murray St. 8.7% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 91.3 0.2%
Southern Illinois 8.5% 8.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 91.5 0.2%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 94.2 0.1%
Indiana St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 96.5 0.0%
Evansville 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois St. 16.8% 0.6% 16.5% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 15.8% 0.3% 15.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 14.4% 0.5% 14.2% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 14.0% 0.5% 13.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 13.9% 0.4% 13.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 8.7% 0.2% 8.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 8.5% 0.2% 8.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.8% 0.1% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 97.1 2.6 0.0
2nd Round 19.3% 0.2 80.7 19.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0