Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#112
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#297
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 15.9% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.3
.500 or above 74.0% 79.7% 54.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 77.4% 61.2%
Conference Champion 16.9% 19.3% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.2% 6.1%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round13.8% 15.7% 7.3%
Second Round2.9% 3.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 38 - 510 - 11
Quad 48 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge W 77-69 77%    
  Nov 09, 2025 155   South Dakota St. W 74-67 73%    
  Nov 14, 2025 142   Furman W 70-65 69%    
  Nov 18, 2025 314   Northern Illinois W 78-62 92%    
  Nov 22, 2025 92   @ UC Irvine L 65-70 33%    
  Nov 25, 2025 94   Loyola Chicago L 66-68 44%    
  Dec 06, 2025 122   Wichita St. W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 13, 2025 201   Oakland W 70-61 78%    
  Dec 17, 2025 153   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 22, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 56-66 18%    
  Dec 29, 2025 261   Valparaiso W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 01, 2026 173   Indiana St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 04, 2026 231   @ Evansville W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 07, 2026 111   Belmont W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 10, 2026 107   @ Bradley L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 13, 2026 153   Illinois-Chicago W 73-66 70%    
  Jan 17, 2026 261   @ Valparaiso W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 21, 2026 105   @ Illinois St. L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 24, 2026 129   Murray St. W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 28, 2026 138   @ Southern Illinois L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 31, 2026 231   Evansville W 71-60 81%    
  Feb 06, 2026 107   Bradley W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 09, 2026 129   @ Murray St. L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 12, 2026 111   @ Belmont L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 15, 2026 113   Drake W 60-57 60%    
  Feb 18, 2026 173   @ Indiana St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 21, 2026 138   Southern Illinois W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 25, 2026 105   Illinois St. W 70-68 58%    
  Mar 01, 2026 113   @ Drake L 57-60 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.1 4.0 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.3 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.5 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.1 1.3 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 9.4 10.4 11.1 10.7 9.4 7.9 6.2 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 98.3% 2.4    2.2 0.2
17-3 87.5% 3.9    3.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 64.5% 4.0    2.6 1.2 0.2
15-5 39.1% 3.1    1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0
14-6 14.2% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 11.4 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 91.6% 71.1% 20.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 71.0%
19-1 1.4% 66.0% 52.5% 13.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.5 28.4%
18-2 2.5% 52.0% 43.7% 8.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 14.7%
17-3 4.4% 40.2% 38.4% 1.8% 11.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.6 2.9%
16-4 6.2% 28.3% 27.5% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 4.5 1.1%
15-5 7.9% 25.7% 25.6% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.9 0.1%
14-6 9.4% 22.0% 21.9% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 7.3 0.1%
13-7 10.7% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2
12-8 11.1% 9.2% 9.2% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.0
11-9 10.4% 5.8% 5.8% 13.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.8
10-10 9.4% 4.0% 4.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0
9-11 7.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4
8-12 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 17.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-13 4.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
6-14 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.0% 13.4% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 4.1 5.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.0 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 50.0 25.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 7.0 100.0