IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.1	#129
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.1	#311
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.8	#137

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.3	#126

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.7%	10.5%	5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.1	11.9	12.7

.500 or above	65.3%	74.5%	50.2%
.500 or above in Conference	61.1%	67.4%	50.9%
Conference Champion	10.2%	12.7%	6.1%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	3.8%	8.0%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	8.6%	10.4%	5.8%
Second Round	1.5%	2.0%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Neutral) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 3	7 - 6	9 - 13
Quad 4	9 - 2	18 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	177	Nebraska Omaha	W	71-68	62%
Nov 07, 2025	365	Mississippi Valley	W	79-49	99.7%
Nov 11, 2025	46	@ SMU	L	64-77	12%
Nov 15, 2025	241	Nicholls St.	W	72-63	80%
Nov 18, 2025	162	Arkansas Little Rock	W	70-64	69%
Nov 23, 2025	151	Middle Tennessee	W	69-67	56%
Nov 24, 2025	93	McNeese St.	L	63-67	38%
Nov 25, 2025	85	George Washington	L	67-71	35%
Dec 02, 2025	291	Morehead St.	W	69-57	86%
Dec 06, 2025	319	Bellarmine	W	76-62	89%
Dec 13, 2025	108	Akron	L	72-74	43%
Dec 18, 2025	113	Drake	W	60-58	55%
Dec 21, 2025	261	@ Valparaiso	W	71-67	65%
Dec 29, 2025	138	Southern Illinois	W	70-66	61%
Jan 01, 2026	153	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	69-70	46%
Jan 04, 2026	107	Bradley	W	67-66	52%
Jan 07, 2026	231	@ Evansville	W	67-64	59%
Jan 10, 2026	261	Valparaiso	W	74-64	80%
Jan 17, 2026	173	Indiana St.	W	78-72	70%
Jan 21, 2026	113	@ Drake	L	57-61	36%
Jan 24, 2026	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	63-68	35%
Jan 28, 2026	105	Illinois St.	W	69-68	52%
Jan 31, 2026	111	@ Belmont	L	70-75	35%
Feb 03, 2026	153	Illinois-Chicago	W	72-67	65%
Feb 06, 2026	138	@ Southern Illinois	L	67-69	42%
Feb 09, 2026	112	Northern Iowa	W	66-65	55%
Feb 12, 2026	173	@ Indiana St.	W	75-74	50%
Feb 15, 2026	111	Belmont	W	73-72	54%
Feb 18, 2026	105	@ Illinois St.	L	66-71	32%
Feb 21, 2026	231	Evansville	W	70-61	77%
Mar 01, 2026	107	@ Bradley	L	64-69	34%
Projected Record						17 - 14	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.3	1.1	2.3	2.6	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1		10.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	2.5	3.7	2.9	1.4	0.3	0.0				11.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.7	3.1	4.1	2.6	0.6	0.0						11.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.8	3.4	4.2	2.0	0.3	0.0							10.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.4	4.3	1.9	0.2	0.0								10.7	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	3.5	4.3	1.6	0.2	0.0									10.7	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	3.2	4.3	1.5	0.1											10.1	7th
8th						0.1	1.0	2.9	3.2	1.4	0.1												8.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.2	2.7	2.6	0.8	0.1													7.6	9th
10th			0.1	0.4	1.2	1.6	1.5	0.5	0.0														5.3	10th
11th	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0															3.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	2.3	3.6	5.5	6.9	8.5	10.0	10.1	10.2	9.9	9.1	7.8	5.9	4.0	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.1			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5
18-2	98.3%	1.2		1.2	0.0
17-3	87.4%	2.0		1.7	0.3	0.0
16-4	64.0%	2.6		1.8	0.7	0.1
15-5	39.4%	2.3		1.0	0.9	0.3	0.0
14-6	14.1%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	10.2%	10.2		6.6	2.6	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		87.6%	62.7%	24.9%	8.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		66.7%
19-1	0.5%		70.6%	56.3%	14.2%	9.9						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0					0.2		32.6%
18-2	1.2%		48.2%	42.5%	5.6%	10.8								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0				0.6		9.8%
17-3	2.3%		33.2%	32.9%	0.3%	11.4											0.0	0.5	0.3	0.0				1.6		0.4%
16-4	4.0%		23.9%	23.4%	0.5%	11.6											0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0			3.1		0.7%
15-5	5.9%		21.1%	20.8%	0.2%	11.9												0.4	0.7	0.2	0.0			4.6		0.3%
14-6	7.8%		16.4%	16.4%		12.2											0.0	0.2	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0		6.5
13-7	9.1%		11.6%	11.6%		12.6												0.1	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0		8.1
12-8	9.9%		9.9%	9.9%		13.0												0.0	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.9
11-9	10.2%		6.3%	6.3%		13.1												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0		9.5
10-10	10.1%		3.4%	3.4%		13.8													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.7
9-11	10.0%		2.3%	2.3%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.8
8-12	8.5%		0.4%	0.4%		18.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	8.4
7-13	6.9%		0.3%	0.3%		15.0																0.0		6.9
6-14	5.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
5-15	3.6%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
4-16	2.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	2.3
3-17	1.3%																							1.3
2-18	0.7%																							0.7
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		8.7%	8.5%	0.2%	12.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	2.0	3.3	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.1	91.3		0.2%