Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
35 San Diego St. 56.4%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +13.4      +4.8 59 +8.7 13 65.3 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Utah St. 32.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +10.1      +7.4 31 +2.6 103 68.5 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Boise St. 28.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +9.2      +5.0 57 +4.2 67 64.9 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 Grand Canyon 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.2      +3.4 85 +3.8 76 76.3 19 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 New Mexico 13.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +6.7      +2.4 105 +4.4 64 79.7 6 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 UNLV 13.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +6.5      +3.1 91 +3.4 85 64.7 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Colorado St. 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 10 +5.2      +2.8 100 +2.5 106 65.1 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
104 Nevada 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4.9      +1.4 123 +3.5 81 61.6 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 Wyoming 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 +0.1      -0.8 190 +0.8 137 62.7 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 San Jose St. 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -0.3      -0.3 172 0.0 166 66.1 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
186 Fresno St. 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 -1.9      -0.8 193 -1.0 201 76.1 20 0.0 1 0.0 1
277 Air Force 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 22 4 - 16 -6.4      -4.6 305 -1.8 232 62.5 328 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
San Diego St. 2.5 43.5 20.4 12.6 8.2 5.5 4.1 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.8 20.5 18.3 15.3 12.2 9.6 7.5 6.3 5.0 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.2
Boise St. 4.2 16.7 16.9 13.2 12.3 10.4 9.0 7.6 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.3
Grand Canyon 4.9 10.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 12.3 10.3 9.2 7.7 5.5 3.7 1.8 0.7
New Mexico 5.2 9.1 11.0 12.3 12.1 12.4 11.2 9.9 8.1 6.6 4.3 2.4 0.6
UNLV 5.3 8.4 10.7 11.8 12.4 11.8 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.0 4.9 2.6 0.9
Colorado St. 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 11.0 9.7 8.6 6.4 3.9 1.5
Nevada 6.0 4.9 7.7 9.9 10.6 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.7 9.0 6.8 4.2 1.7
Wyoming 8.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.7 9.4 12.2 14.8 16.4 15.6 8.7
San Jose St. 8.4 0.6 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.8 8.0 9.5 12.1 14.4 15.5 15.7 9.5
Fresno St. 9.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.1 5.8 7.8 10.6 14.0 17.4 19.7 14.6
Air Force 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.6 4.3 8.0 13.6 23.5 45.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.6 8.8 11.1 12.3 13.6 13.3 11.0 7.6 3.1
Utah St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.8 5.8 7.1 8.5 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.8 9.7 7.4 4.8 2.2 0.7
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.7 6.6 8.1 9.8 10.7 11.0 10.4 10.1 8.6 6.1 3.7 1.7 0.5
Grand Canyon 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.1 4.6 6.7 8.0 9.9 11.2 11.7 10.7 9.9 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2
New Mexico 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.9 5.2 7.3 8.9 10.4 11.3 11.8 9.9 8.9 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2
UNLV 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.8 8.8 10.6 10.9 11.2 10.2 8.2 7.0 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.1
Colorado St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.8 5.2 7.1 8.9 10.4 11.0 10.9 10.3 9.0 7.1 5.4 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.8 6.1 7.5 9.3 10.6 11.2 11.1 9.7 8.8 6.6 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.4 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.1 11.3 11.7 11.5 10.4 9.8 7.9 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.6 1.9 4.0 6.7 8.9 10.4 11.4 11.9 10.8 9.0 8.0 6.0 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 1.1 3.1 6.4 9.0 11.5 12.2 12.3 10.8 9.6 7.8 5.6 4.4 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 6.2 12.6 15.6 16.7 14.0 11.6 8.6 5.8 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 43.5% 33.3 8.4 1.5 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 20.5% 13.8 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 16.7% 11.0 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 10.3% 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 9.1% 5.4 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
UNLV 8.4% 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 5.9% 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 4.9% 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
Wyoming 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 56.4% 32.5% 23.9% 11   1.4 2.4 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.7 10.4 8.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.6 35.4%
Utah St. 32.9% 16.6% 16.3% 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.8 4.5 8.1 7.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 67.1 19.6%
Boise St. 28.7% 14.9% 13.8% 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.7 4.0 7.1 6.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.3 16.2%
Grand Canyon 14.0% 8.3% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.3 4.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 86.0 6.2%
New Mexico 13.6% 8.1% 5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 3.2 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.4 6.0%
UNLV 13.8% 7.4% 6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 2.1 3.2 4.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 86.2 6.9%
Colorado St. 8.6% 5.4% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 91.4 3.4%
Nevada 7.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.5 3.2%
Wyoming 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.2%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.3%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.1%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 56.4% 5.6% 53.7% 33.1% 13.6% 5.9% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Utah St. 32.9% 5.6% 30.2% 15.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 28.7% 4.7% 26.3% 13.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 14.0% 2.4% 12.9% 5.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 13.6% 2.3% 12.4% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 13.8% 2.8% 12.4% 5.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 8.6% 1.5% 7.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 7.5% 1.4% 6.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 39.1 45.0 14.0 1.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 46.8 42.2 10.0 0.9 0.0
2nd Round 65.1% 0.8 34.9 49.0 14.5 1.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 26.3% 0.3 73.7 24.6 1.6 0.0
Elite Eight 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.1 0.3 0.0
Final Four 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5