Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#54
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.5#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 4.9% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.9% 10.3% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 41.5% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.6% 26.9% 12.2%
Average Seed 8.6 8.3 9.3
.500 or above 88.5% 94.3% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 89.7% 80.4%
Conference Champion 20.5% 25.2% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four5.6% 6.8% 4.3%
First Round30.2% 38.1% 21.5%
Second Round15.6% 20.9% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 7.2% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.7% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Neutral) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 47 - 7
Quad 39 - 216 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 60   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-70 53%    
  Nov 12, 2025 281   Weber St. W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 15, 2025 160   UTEP W 80-67 89%    
  Nov 21, 2025 115   Tulane W 77-70 73%    
  Nov 29, 2025 147   Montana St. W 77-65 86%    
  Dec 04, 2025 95   @ South Florida W 75-74 56%    
  Dec 07, 2025 192   @ Charlotte W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 13, 2025 105   Illinois St. W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 20, 2025 98   Colorado St. W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 30, 2025 186   @ Fresno St. W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 03, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 06, 2026 277   @ Air Force W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 10, 2026 62   @ Boise St. L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 14, 2026 104   Nevada W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 17, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 20, 2026 86   UNLV W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 23, 2026 98   @ Colorado St. W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 28, 2026 157   Wyoming W 76-63 86%    
  Jan 31, 2026 35   San Diego St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 04, 2026 81   @ New Mexico W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 07, 2026 157   @ Wyoming W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 10, 2026 186   Fresno St. W 85-70 89%    
  Feb 14, 2026 51   Memphis W 78-76 58%    
  Feb 18, 2026 62   Boise St. W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 21, 2026 104   @ Nevada W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 25, 2026 35   @ San Diego St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 28, 2026 78   Grand Canyon W 80-74 69%    
  Mar 03, 2026 86   @ UNLV W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 07, 2026 81   New Mexico W 81-75 70%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.6 5.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 20.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 4.0 6.1 4.6 1.7 0.4 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 4.8 5.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.3 4.4 1.5 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.8 5.8 7.1 8.5 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.8 9.7 7.4 4.8 2.2 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.1
18-2 92.0% 4.5    3.9 0.6
17-3 76.4% 5.7    4.1 1.5 0.1
16-4 47.2% 4.6    2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 20.0% 2.2    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 13.8 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 99.0% 64.7% 34.3% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
19-1 2.2% 97.8% 54.1% 43.7% 4.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3%
18-2 4.8% 92.9% 44.6% 48.3% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 87.2%
17-3 7.4% 85.2% 36.1% 49.1% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.1 76.9%
16-4 9.7% 67.4% 27.9% 39.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 1.2 0.0 3.1 54.8%
15-5 10.8% 46.5% 22.1% 24.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 31.3%
14-6 12.0% 30.6% 16.6% 13.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 16.7%
13-7 11.6% 18.3% 12.6% 5.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.1 9.5 6.5%
12-8 10.3% 9.6% 7.4% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 2.4%
11-9 8.5% 5.8% 5.0% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.9%
10-10 7.1% 3.0% 2.7% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.9 0.3%
9-11 5.8% 2.0% 2.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
8-12 3.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
7-13 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.9% 16.6% 16.3% 8.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.8 4.5 8.1 7.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 67.1 19.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 34.7 38.5 23.0 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 12.5 12.5 25.0 37.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 50.0 50.0