IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.3	#159
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.1	#228
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#172

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.0	#166

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.1%	2.7%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	1.0%	0.2%
Average Seed	11.4	11.0	11.8

.500 or above	22.6%	41.4%	18.1%
.500 or above in Conference	24.4%	36.9%	21.3%
Conference Champion	0.6%	1.4%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	15.1%	8.6%	16.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
First Round	0.9%	2.3%	0.6%
Second Round	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 19.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 2	2 - 6	2 - 11
Quad 3	5 - 6	7 - 17
Quad 4	5 - 2	12 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	89	@ Utah	L	67-76	20%
Nov 08, 2025	126	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	66-71	30%
Nov 13, 2025	21	@ Michigan St.	L	59-78	4%
Nov 21, 2025	189	Southern	W	71-66	65%
Nov 25, 2025	150	Tulsa	L	68-69	47%
Nov 30, 2025	92	UC Irvine	L	68-71	39%
Dec 05, 2025	180	San Diego	W	77-73	63%
Dec 09, 2025	264	Long Beach St.	W	70-62	76%
Dec 13, 2025	99	Stanford	L	67-70	41%
Dec 20, 2025	81	@ New Mexico	L	69-79	19%
Dec 30, 2025	35	San Diego St.	L	61-72	18%
Jan 03, 2026	54	@ Utah St.	L	66-79	12%
Jan 06, 2026	186	Fresno St.	W	76-71	64%
Jan 10, 2026	78	@ Grand Canyon	L	68-79	19%
Jan 13, 2026	277	Air Force	W	70-61	78%
Jan 17, 2026	86	UNLV	L	66-70	37%
Jan 20, 2026	104	@ Nevada	L	61-69	25%
Jan 24, 2026	157	@ Wyoming	L	65-68	40%
Jan 27, 2026	62	Boise St.	L	65-72	29%
Jan 31, 2026	81	New Mexico	L	72-76	37%
Feb 07, 2026	98	@ Colorado St.	L	64-73	24%
Feb 10, 2026	86	@ UNLV	L	63-73	21%
Feb 14, 2026	78	Grand Canyon	L	71-76	36%
Feb 17, 2026	104	Nevada	L	64-66	43%
Feb 21, 2026	62	@ Boise St.	L	62-75	15%
Feb 24, 2026	277	@ Air Force	W	67-64	60%
Feb 28, 2026	98	Colorado St.	L	67-70	42%
Mar 03, 2026	186	@ Fresno St.	L	73-74	45%
Mar 07, 2026	157	Wyoming	W	68-65	58%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0				1.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0						2.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0							4.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.3	2.4	1.4	0.4									5.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.8	3.6	2.0	0.3	0.0									8.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	2.4	3.8	2.4	0.5	0.0										9.5	7th
8th						0.1	0.8	3.3	4.8	2.7	0.5	0.0											12.1	8th
9th					0.1	1.3	4.2	5.4	3.0	0.4	0.0												14.4	9th
10th				0.4	2.2	5.0	5.0	2.6	0.4	0.0													15.5	10th
11th		0.1	1.2	3.7	5.4	3.7	1.4	0.2	0.0														15.7	11th
12th	0.6	1.8	2.8	2.6	1.3	0.3	0.0																9.5	12th

Total	0.6	1.9	4.0	6.7	8.9	10.4	11.4	11.9	10.8	9.0	8.0	6.0	4.2	3.1	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	75.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0
17-3	60.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0
16-4	39.7%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	23.7%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	2.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.6%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%														0.0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%		100.0%	10.0											0.0									100.0%
18-2	0.1%		66.7%	16.4%	50.3%	9.6							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		60.1%
17-3	0.1%		46.4%	13.3%	33.2%	10.0								0.0			0.0	0.0						0.1		38.3%
16-4	0.4%		25.5%	6.3%	19.2%	10.2									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1						0.3		20.5%
15-5	0.9%		16.4%	7.3%	9.0%	10.6								0.0			0.0	0.1	0.0					0.7		9.8%
14-6	1.6%		8.6%	5.6%	3.0%	11.1											0.0	0.1	0.0					1.5		3.2%
13-7	3.1%		6.5%	5.8%	0.7%	11.4											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				2.9		0.7%
12-8	4.2%		2.8%	2.8%		11.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.1
11-9	6.0%		0.9%	0.8%	0.1%	12.5												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		5.9		0.1%
10-10	8.0%		0.9%	0.9%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		7.9
9-11	9.0%		0.4%	0.4%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.9
8-12	10.8%		0.5%	0.5%		14.4													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
7-13	11.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
6-14	11.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
5-15	10.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.4
4-16	8.9%																							8.9
3-17	6.7%																							6.7
2-18	4.0%																							4.0
1-19	1.9%																							1.9
0-20	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	11.4							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	98.9		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%