Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#272
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#57
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.5% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 5.3% 6.2% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 31.7% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.2% 18.4% 7.3%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.6
.500 or above 83.1% 87.2% 65.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 83.5% 68.0%
Conference Champion 16.7% 18.4% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four4.7% 5.1% 3.3%
First Round26.3% 29.0% 14.1%
Second Round13.0% 14.6% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.4% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 46 - 8
Quad 38 - 214 - 11
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 118   Utah Valley W 74-65 82%    
  Nov 11, 2025 275   UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-64 96%    
  Nov 15, 2025 147   Montana St. W 74-62 85%    
  Nov 18, 2025 122   Wichita St. W 76-66 81%    
  Nov 24, 2025 29   USC L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 06, 2025 66   @ Butler L 69-72 41%    
  Dec 10, 2025 116   Duquesne W 71-62 79%    
  Dec 14, 2025 49   St. Mary's L 61-63 43%    
  Dec 20, 2025 104   @ Nevada W 66-65 55%    
  Dec 30, 2025 81   New Mexico W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 03, 2026 35   @ San Diego St. L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 07, 2026 78   Grand Canyon W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 10, 2026 54   Utah St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 13, 2026 86   @ UNLV L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 16, 2026 98   Colorado St. W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 20, 2026 157   @ Wyoming W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 24, 2026 277   Air Force W 75-56 94%    
  Jan 27, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 30, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 03, 2026 104   Nevada W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 07, 2026 81   @ New Mexico L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 13, 2026 86   UNLV W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 18, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 21, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 75-62 85%    
  Feb 24, 2026 157   Wyoming W 72-60 84%    
  Feb 28, 2026 186   @ Fresno St. W 77-69 75%    
  Mar 03, 2026 35   San Diego St. L 66-67 47%    
  Mar 07, 2026 98   @ Colorado St. W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.8 4.7 3.5 1.7 0.5 16.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.9 4.4 1.4 0.2 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 4.8 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 4.2 3.5 1.0 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.7 6.6 8.1 9.8 10.7 11.0 10.4 10.1 8.6 6.1 3.7 1.7 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 94.3% 3.5    3.0 0.5 0.0
17-3 76.9% 4.7    3.2 1.4 0.1
16-4 44.8% 3.8    1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 18.5% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
14-6 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 11.0 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 64.1% 35.9% 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 98.4% 51.8% 46.6% 4.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.6%
18-2 3.7% 91.1% 45.1% 46.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 83.8%
17-3 6.1% 82.5% 35.7% 46.8% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.1 72.8%
16-4 8.6% 65.9% 29.1% 36.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.0 2.9 51.9%
15-5 10.1% 48.4% 23.9% 24.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.1 5.2 32.2%
14-6 10.4% 30.9% 16.5% 14.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.1 7.2 17.3%
13-7 11.0% 19.9% 12.7% 7.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 8.2%
12-8 10.7% 10.5% 7.8% 2.7% 10.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.6 2.9%
11-9 9.8% 6.7% 6.0% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.8%
10-10 8.1% 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.1%
9-11 6.6% 2.1% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-12 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
7-13 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 2.2% 2.2
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 28.7% 14.9% 13.8% 8.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.7 4.0 7.1 6.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.3 16.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 46.2 53.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 50.0 50.0