Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Florida 95.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +21.5      +12.6 3 +8.9 12 72.7 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
7 Kentucky 89.9%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +19.3      +11.4 6 +7.9 15 75.1 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
16 Tennessee 81.3%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +17.4      +7.4 32 +10.0 2 61.1 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Arkansas 79.2%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17.0      +8.8 23 +8.2 14 71.6 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 Alabama 75.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +16.5      +10.7 11 +5.8 44 85.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Auburn 70.0%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +15.9      +8.8 22 +7.0 23 69.6 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
30 Mississippi 61.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +14.1      +7.3 34 +6.8 24 68.9 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Mississippi St. 60.5%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +13.6      +7.8 28 +5.8 43 69.4 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 Texas A&M 56.1%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +13.4      +6.7 43 +6.7 27 66.5 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Missouri 55.5%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +13.3      +9.2 17 +4.2 68 70.3 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Texas 51.7%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +13.3      +7.3 35 +6.0 39 68.2 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Vanderbilt 48.9%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +12.6      +7.8 29 +4.8 54 72.3 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 Oklahoma 40.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +11.5      +7.1 38 +4.5 62 70.3 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Georgia 33.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 7 - 11 +10.4      +5.4 54 +5.0 50 66.7 215 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 LSU 32.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 7 - 11 +10.4      +5.5 53 +4.9 53 69.7 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
71 South Carolina 17.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 6 - 12 +8.1      +3.5 83 +4.6 57 64.3 287 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Florida 3.2 37.9 17.8 11.7 8.1 6.8 4.6 3.3 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Kentucky 4.8 20.1 14.7 11.9 10.3 8.6 6.9 5.8 5.3 4.4 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.4
Tennessee 5.9 12.1 11.9 11.1 9.3 8.3 8.0 7.3 6.3 5.5 4.8 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.3 1.6 1.0
Arkansas 5.9 12.2 11.7 11.0 9.9 9.4 7.9 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.6 4.1 3.6 2.6 2.4 1.6 1.0
Alabama 6.4 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.4 8.8 7.9 6.8 7.0 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.0 1.4
Auburn 7.0 7.8 8.6 9.1 8.7 8.1 8.0 7.3 7.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 2.7 1.8
Mississippi 8.1 4.8 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.6 4.3 3.0
Mississippi St. 8.5 3.9 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 6.8 7.2 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.0 3.9
Texas A&M 8.3 4.3 5.7 6.1 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.5 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.6 4.6 3.5
Missouri 8.6 3.6 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 6.5 6.6 6.1 5.5 4.0
Texas 8.4 3.9 5.3 6.1 6.8 6.6 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.3 6.5 6.4 6.1 4.9 3.4
Vanderbilt 9.4 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.6 7.8 8.2 7.7 7.4 5.4
Oklahoma 9.9 1.9 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.6 5.5 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.0 8.6 8.8 7.8
Georgia 10.7 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.7 7.1 8.2 8.3 9.2 10.2 10.4 10.8
LSU 10.5 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.9 7.5 8.2 8.1 9.5 10.0 9.9 9.6
South Carolina 12.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 7.2 8.6 10.1 12.0 14.7 19.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.7 13.3 13.9 13.0 11.4 8.3 3.3
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.4 5.9 8.2 10.1 11.4 12.5 12.3 11.0 9.0 5.9 3.0 0.8
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.4 8.2 10.2 11.2 11.3 11.8 10.1 8.5 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.5
Arkansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 3.1 4.3 6.3 8.1 9.6 11.1 12.4 11.6 10.3 8.7 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.3
Alabama 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 5.4 7.3 8.9 10.8 10.9 11.9 11.0 9.3 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.3
Auburn 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.1 4.5 6.3 7.7 10.2 11.2 11.5 11.4 10.5 8.1 6.0 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.2
Mississippi 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.8 8.3 10.0 11.4 11.2 10.8 9.8 7.9 6.1 4.2 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.1 9.2 10.4 11.6 11.2 10.8 9.0 7.4 5.3 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Texas A&M 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 4.6 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.8 11.4 10.7 9.5 7.7 5.4 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
Missouri 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.4 9.0 10.8 11.7 11.7 10.4 8.8 6.7 5.1 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
Texas 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.2 7.0 9.1 10.9 11.0 11.7 10.7 8.7 7.9 5.5 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Vanderbilt 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.0 7.3 9.1 10.9 11.1 11.5 11.1 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 3.8 5.9 8.4 9.5 11.3 11.6 11.3 9.5 8.4 6.7 5.1 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 0.7 2.7 4.9 7.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 11.6 10.7 8.8 7.1 5.1 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
LSU 7 - 11 0.7 2.2 4.4 7.2 9.4 11.4 11.9 11.9 10.9 9.0 7.6 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 1.7 4.7 8.9 11.7 12.9 12.7 12.3 10.5 8.5 5.7 4.4 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida 37.9% 26.9 8.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 20.1% 12.6 5.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 12.1% 7.2 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 12.2% 6.7 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama 10.1% 5.7 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Auburn 7.8% 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 4.8% 2.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi St. 3.9% 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 4.3% 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri 3.6% 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas 3.9% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0
Georgia 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida 95.7% 26.0% 69.8% 2   29.3 21.6 14.4 10.0 6.9 4.6 2.9 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 4.3 94.2%
Kentucky 89.9% 15.8% 74.1% 2   16.0 16.0 13.7 11.4 8.9 7.4 5.7 3.8 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.1 10.1 88.0%
Tennessee 81.3% 9.6% 71.6% 5   9.0 10.3 10.9 10.5 9.6 8.0 7.0 5.2 4.1 4.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 18.7 79.3%
Arkansas 79.2% 9.0% 70.3% 5   7.5 10.3 10.6 10.9 9.4 8.5 6.7 5.4 3.6 3.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 20.8 77.2%
Alabama 75.9% 8.1% 67.8% 3   8.4 11.1 11.7 10.9 9.2 6.3 4.9 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 24.1 73.8%
Auburn 70.0% 7.1% 62.9% 5   5.7 8.0 10.0 9.5 9.0 6.9 5.1 4.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 30.0 67.7%
Mississippi 61.5% 4.5% 57.0% 8   2.5 4.0 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.3 7.2 6.7 5.8 5.6 3.2 0.1 0.0 38.5 59.7%
Mississippi St. 60.5% 3.5% 57.0% 7   2.3 3.6 5.3 6.4 7.1 7.6 7.4 6.2 5.5 5.3 3.5 0.3 39.5 59.1%
Texas A&M 56.1% 3.3% 52.8% 9   1.6 2.5 3.9 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.5 7.3 6.6 6.4 3.1 0.1 43.9 54.6%
Missouri 55.5% 3.2% 52.2% 9   1.4 2.7 4.2 5.0 5.8 6.3 7.1 7.7 6.5 5.7 3.0 0.1 44.5 54.0%
Texas 51.7% 3.0% 48.7% 10   1.4 2.3 3.5 4.5 5.8 6.0 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.6 3.4 0.2 0.0 48.3 50.2%
Vanderbilt 48.9% 2.3% 46.6% 10   1.1 2.3 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.0 6.8 6.3 5.6 5.0 3.2 0.2 0.0 51.1 47.7%
Oklahoma 40.8% 1.6% 39.1% 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.8 6.0 6.4 5.5 5.3 2.6 0.1 59.2 39.8%
Georgia 33.4% 1.3% 32.2% 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.9 4.7 5.1 3.3 0.1 0.0 66.6 32.6%
LSU 32.2% 1.2% 31.0% 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 5.0 2.9 0.2 0.0 67.8 31.4%
South Carolina 17.8% 0.5% 17.3% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.6 1.9 0.1 82.2 17.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida 95.7% 1.7% 95.1% 87.8% 62.9% 39.6% 23.3% 12.8% 6.8%
Kentucky 89.9% 2.5% 88.8% 76.9% 49.5% 27.8% 14.6% 7.3% 3.6%
Tennessee 81.3% 3.8% 79.7% 64.8% 37.8% 19.1% 9.2% 4.3% 1.9%
Arkansas 79.2% 3.7% 77.6% 62.7% 35.5% 17.2% 8.2% 3.8% 1.5%
Alabama 75.9% 5.4% 73.5% 60.8% 34.5% 16.9% 7.8% 3.4% 1.4%
Auburn 70.0% 5.7% 67.6% 53.6% 29.4% 13.8% 6.4% 2.7% 1.1%
Mississippi 61.5% 5.1% 58.9% 41.6% 18.6% 7.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5%
Mississippi St. 60.5% 5.6% 57.6% 40.3% 18.0% 7.5% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Texas A&M 56.1% 5.1% 53.5% 35.7% 15.2% 6.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Missouri 55.5% 4.9% 53.1% 35.8% 15.2% 6.3% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Texas 51.7% 5.5% 49.1% 33.2% 13.8% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
Vanderbilt 48.9% 5.0% 46.4% 30.7% 12.7% 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Oklahoma 40.8% 4.5% 38.5% 24.1% 8.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Georgia 33.4% 5.2% 30.8% 17.9% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
LSU 32.2% 4.8% 29.8% 18.0% 6.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
South Carolina 17.8% 3.3% 16.2% 8.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.5 0.0 0.6 4.5 15.9 29.2 28.3 15.9 4.7 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.5 21.1 31.0 24.8 11.2 2.7 0.4
2nd Round 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 11.1 23.0 28.3 21.3 9.3 2.7 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.7 0.3 3.6 14.0 27.6 29.1 17.9 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 91.3% 1.8 8.7 30.6 36.3 19.0 4.8 0.6 0.0
Final Four 66.1% 0.9 33.9 46.0 17.8 2.3 0.1
Final Game 37.9% 0.4 62.1 34.4 3.6
Champion 19.0% 0.2 81.0 19.0