Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.1#346
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#32
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.0#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.7%
#1 Seed 9.0% 9.1% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 19.3% 19.4% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 40.7% 40.9% 13.6%
Top 6 Seed 58.3% 58.6% 26.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.3% 81.6% 52.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 79.6% 51.5%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.8
.500 or above 91.1% 91.4% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 74.8% 49.3%
Conference Champion 12.1% 12.2% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.9% 7.1%
First Four3.8% 3.7% 9.3%
First Round79.7% 80.0% 47.9%
Second Round64.8% 65.1% 30.7%
Sweet Sixteen37.8% 38.0% 13.6%
Elite Eight19.1% 19.3% 3.6%
Final Four9.2% 9.2% 1.5%
Championship Game4.3% 4.3% 0.8%
National Champion1.9% 1.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 32 - 015 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 246   Mercer W 80-55 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 266   Northern Kentucky W 77-51 99%    
  Nov 12, 2025 330   North Florida W 88-57 99.7%   
  Nov 17, 2025 172   Rice W 75-54 97%    
  Nov 20, 2025 268   Tennessee St. W 82-56 99%    
  Nov 24, 2025 82   Rutgers W 72-61 84%    
  Nov 25, 2025 1   Houston L 56-63 27%    
  Dec 02, 2025 64   @ Syracuse W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 06, 2025 15   Illinois L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 16, 2025 10   Louisville W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 21, 2025 307   Gardner-Webb W 81-52 99%    
  Dec 30, 2025 312   South Carolina St. W 81-52 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 06, 2026 38   Texas W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 10, 2026 5   @ Florida L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 13, 2026 36   Texas A&M W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 17, 2026 7   Kentucky W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 24, 2026 19   @ Alabama L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 27, 2026 52   @ Georgia W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 31, 2026 22   Auburn W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 03, 2026 30   Mississippi W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 07, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 11, 2026 32   @ Mississippi St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 14, 2026 53   LSU W 72-62 80%    
  Feb 18, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 21, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 24, 2026 37   @ Missouri W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 19   Alabama W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 03, 2026 71   @ South Carolina W 66-60 69%    
  Mar 07, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 73-65 73%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.0 1.6 0.5 12.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.5 3.1 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.9 0.2 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.4 8.2 10.2 11.2 11.3 11.8 10.1 8.5 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.3% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 86.2% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 57.8% 3.4    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.0% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.2 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.8% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.5% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.5 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.1% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.2 0.9 2.2 3.0 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.8% 99.8% 9.8% 90.0% 4.3 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.3 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.3% 99.6% 5.3% 94.3% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.5%
10-8 11.2% 97.2% 3.3% 94.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.2%
9-9 10.2% 88.1% 1.4% 86.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.3 1.2 88.0%
8-10 8.2% 65.6% 1.4% 64.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.8 65.1%
7-11 6.4% 35.3% 0.8% 34.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 34.8%
6-12 4.6% 12.0% 0.8% 11.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 11.3%
5-13 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9 3.0%
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.3% 9.6% 71.6% 4.9 9.0 10.3 10.9 10.5 9.6 8.0 7.0 5.2 4.1 4.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 18.7 79.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0