Preseason Rankings
Alabama
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace85.0#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.4% 8.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 19.5% 19.5% 3.7%
Top 4 Seed 42.0% 42.1% 11.1%
Top 6 Seed 57.5% 57.6% 18.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.9% 76.1% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.8% 74.0% 30.8%
Average Seed 4.7 4.7 6.5
.500 or above 78.4% 78.6% 35.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 70.4% 40.7%
Conference Champion 10.1% 10.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.6% 11.1%
First Four5.4% 5.4% 9.4%
First Round73.5% 73.7% 33.3%
Second Round60.8% 60.9% 27.7%
Sweet Sixteen34.5% 34.6% 11.1%
Elite Eight16.9% 17.0% 5.5%
Final Four7.8% 7.9% 1.8%
Championship Game3.4% 3.4% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 26 - 214 - 12
Quad 34 - 017 - 12
Quad 42 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 315   North Dakota W 99-71 99.6%   
  Nov 08, 2025 8   @ St. John's L 82-87 32%    
  Nov 13, 2025 2   Purdue L 79-83 36%    
  Nov 19, 2025 15   Illinois L 88-89 47%    
  Nov 24, 2025 18   Gonzaga L 87-88 50%    
  Nov 26, 2025 86   UNLV W 84-74 81%    
  Dec 03, 2025 42   Clemson W 80-73 73%    
  Dec 07, 2025 168   Texas San Antonio W 96-76 96%    
  Dec 12, 2025 11   Arizona L 86-88 44%    
  Dec 17, 2025 95   South Florida W 90-76 89%    
  Dec 21, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 94-78 91%    
  Dec 29, 2025 97   Yale W 89-75 88%    
  Jan 03, 2026 7   Kentucky W 88-87 51%    
  Jan 06, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt W 86-85 53%    
  Jan 10, 2026 38   Texas W 85-79 70%    
  Jan 13, 2026 32   @ Mississippi St. L 83-84 50%    
  Jan 17, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma W 85-83 57%    
  Jan 24, 2026 16   Tennessee W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 27, 2026 37   Missouri W 88-82 70%    
  Feb 01, 2026 5   @ Florida L 82-90 25%    
  Feb 03, 2026 36   Texas A&M W 83-77 69%    
  Feb 07, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 82-84 43%    
  Feb 11, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 82-83 49%    
  Feb 14, 2026 71   South Carolina W 84-73 83%    
  Feb 17, 2026 17   Arkansas W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 21, 2026 53   @ LSU W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 25, 2026 32   Mississippi St. W 86-80 68%    
  Feb 28, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 73-77 38%    
  Mar 03, 2026 52   @ Georgia W 82-79 60%    
  Mar 07, 2026 22   Auburn W 85-81 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.3 10.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.7 1.4 0.1 9.8 3rd
4th 0.6 3.4 4.1 1.3 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.5 1.7 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.1 1.1 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.2 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.4 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.1 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.3 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.6 5.4 7.3 8.9 10.8 10.9 11.9 11.0 9.3 7.2 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 85.7% 2.3    1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 61.7% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.8% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 5.7 3.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.8% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.8 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.2% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.3 1.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.3% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.0 1.1 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.0% 99.9% 11.7% 88.1% 3.8 0.4 1.6 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 11.9% 99.2% 5.0% 94.2% 4.7 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.0 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 10.9% 95.6% 3.0% 92.6% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 95.5%
9-9 10.8% 84.4% 2.7% 81.8% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.7 84.0%
8-10 8.9% 57.6% 0.6% 57.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 57.3%
7-11 7.3% 29.9% 0.3% 29.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 29.7%
6-12 5.4% 9.0% 0.5% 8.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.9 8.5%
5-13 3.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.9%
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 75.9% 8.1% 67.8% 4.7 8.4 11.1 11.7 10.9 9.2 6.3 4.9 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 24.1 73.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0