Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
18 Gonzaga 78.7%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 16 - 2 +16.6      +10.6 12 +6.0 38 74.3 45 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 St. Mary's 34.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 13 - 5 +11.2      +3.7 79 +7.5 17 57.7 360 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 San Francisco 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +7.3      +3.5 82 +3.8 77 69.2 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Santa Clara 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 +4.3      +3.0 95 +1.3 125 71.4 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Oregon St. 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.1      +3.0 94 +0.1 162 61.4 342 0.0 1 0.0 1
121 Seattle 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.5      -1.0 201 +3.4 82 65.5 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Washington St. 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 +2.1      +1.8 119 +0.3 151 75.4 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Loyola Marymount 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      +0.3 157 +1.5 122 67.7 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 San Diego 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.3      +0.8 140 -2.1 240 75.8 21 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Pacific 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 6 - 11 -3.4      -1.0 198 -2.4 256 66.4 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
244 Pepperdine 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 12 -4.5      -2.1 235 -2.4 257 71.8 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
265 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5.6      -1.0 202 -4.6 313 69.9 125 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.5 69.0 19.1 6.7 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.7 25.6 31.9 18.1 10.6 6.0 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 4.2 9.1 17.6 18.7 16.3 12.0 9.2 6.6 4.5 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3
Santa Clara 5.6 3.5 9.0 12.5 13.6 13.9 12.4 10.4 8.9 6.9 5.1 2.8 1.2
Oregon St. 5.7 3.1 8.7 13.5 13.2 12.3 12.0 10.1 9.1 7.3 5.5 3.6 1.7
Seattle 6.1 2.4 6.6 10.1 12.1 12.8 12.5 11.2 10.4 8.7 6.4 4.6 2.4
Washington St. 6.3 2.1 5.6 9.2 11.3 12.5 13.0 12.2 10.7 8.9 7.2 4.7 2.5
Loyola Marymount 6.4 1.7 6.0 9.6 11.0 12.1 11.9 11.9 10.9 9.0 8.0 5.3 2.7
San Diego 7.5 0.6 3.0 5.1 7.9 9.1 11.2 11.7 12.2 11.9 11.3 9.4 6.6
Pacific 8.8 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.2 7.3 9.2 11.4 14.0 15.6 17.0 13.7
Pepperdine 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.5 6.4 9.1 12.8 16.8 21.5 23.8
Portland 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.6 7.0 9.4 12.3 16.2 20.1 24.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.0 6.9 11.2 16.2 20.9 22.0 14.4
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 6.2 8.7 11.9 14.5 15.6 15.2 11.5 6.5 2.1
San Francisco 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.3 9.7 11.7 12.9 13.3 11.9 9.7 6.8 3.8 1.6 0.3
Santa Clara 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 4.8 7.0 9.5 11.1 12.1 12.8 11.5 9.6 7.1 4.7 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Oregon St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.6 9.3 10.5 12.1 11.5 10.7 9.2 7.6 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
Seattle 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.4 8.8 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.8 10.2 8.1 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.4 11.2 12.6 12.8 11.1 9.8 7.2 4.9 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.9 7.4 9.0 10.8 12.3 12.3 11.0 8.9 7.2 4.8 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
San Diego 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 3.4 5.3 8.5 10.6 11.9 12.4 11.5 10.6 8.2 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 6 - 12 1.3 3.8 7.8 10.9 13.1 13.7 12.7 11.1 9.3 6.8 4.5 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 13 2.8 7.5 12.0 14.4 15.5 13.7 11.8 8.8 5.8 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 2.8 7.4 11.4 14.0 15.6 13.4 11.4 9.0 6.0 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 69.0% 56.3 11.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 25.6% 16.4 7.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 9.1% 5.2 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 3.5% 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 3.1% 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Seattle 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
San Diego 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 78.7% 55.2% 23.6% 11   4.0 5.7 6.7 8.1 7.2 7.5 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.7 6.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.3 52.6%
St. Mary's 34.7% 21.8% 12.9% 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 3.7 8.1 10.0 1.1 0.1 65.3 16.5%
San Francisco 14.8% 9.1% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 3.7 5.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.2 6.2%
Santa Clara 6.3% 4.0% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.7 2.4%
Oregon St. 3.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.3 0.9%
Seattle 3.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 96.8 0.7%
Washington St. 2.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4 0.6%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.3%
San Diego 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.1%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 78.7% 3.5% 77.4% 55.6% 28.0% 13.7% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4%
St. Mary's 34.7% 5.3% 32.4% 17.0% 5.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
San Francisco 14.8% 2.6% 13.4% 5.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 6.3% 1.4% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 3.7% 0.5% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 3.2% 0.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 2.6% 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.1% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 57.0 39.1 3.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 62.2 35.1 2.6 0.1
2nd Round 70.6% 0.8 29.4 58.2 12.0 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 34.6% 0.4 65.4 32.8 1.8 0.0
Elite Eight 16.3% 0.2 83.7 16.0 0.3
Final Four 7.3% 0.1 92.7 7.2 0.0
Final Game 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.2 0.0
Champion 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5