IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tulsa
American Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.4	#150
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.7	#244
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.8	#138

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.4	#179

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.1%	4.1%	2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	11.9	11.6	12.4

.500 or above	46.3%	58.9%	34.4%
.500 or above in Conference	39.6%	47.8%	32.0%
Conference Champion	3.2%	4.5%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	13.3%	9.2%	17.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	3.0%	4.0%	2.1%
Second Round	0.5%	0.8%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Neutral) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 5	2 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 7	7 - 13
Quad 4	7 - 2	14 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	143	Rhode Island	L	73-74	48%
Nov 12, 2025	318	@ Oral Roberts	W	75-69	72%
Nov 17, 2025	57	@ Kansas St.	L	63-75	13%
Nov 21, 2025	272	Austin Peay	W	73-64	80%
Nov 25, 2025	159	San Jose St.	W	69-68	53%
Dec 06, 2025	114	Missouri St.	W	66-65	50%
Dec 10, 2025	364	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	88-61	99%
Dec 13, 2025	139	New Mexico St.	L	66-67	46%
Dec 19, 2025	161	@ Western Kentucky	L	74-76	43%
Dec 22, 2025	322	Denver	W	76-63	86%
Dec 31, 2025	172	Rice	W	71-67	64%
Jan 04, 2026	88	@ North Texas	L	57-65	24%
Jan 10, 2026	95	South Florida	L	70-72	43%
Jan 14, 2026	192	@ Charlotte	L	68-69	48%
Jan 18, 2026	103	@ UAB	L	70-77	26%
Jan 21, 2026	51	Memphis	L	70-77	27%
Jan 25, 2026	172	@ Rice	L	68-70	44%
Jan 28, 2026	88	North Texas	L	60-62	42%
Feb 01, 2026	122	Wichita St.	W	72-71	53%
Feb 04, 2026	140	@ Florida Atlantic	L	71-75	36%
Feb 08, 2026	95	@ South Florida	L	67-75	25%
Feb 11, 2026	103	UAB	L	73-74	45%
Feb 14, 2026	122	@ Wichita St.	L	69-74	33%
Feb 18, 2026	192	Charlotte	W	71-65	67%
Feb 22, 2026	168	Texas San Antonio	W	76-72	63%
Feb 25, 2026	115	@ Tulane	L	68-74	31%
Mar 04, 2026	158	@ East Carolina	L	67-69	42%
Mar 08, 2026	133	Temple	W	74-72	55%
Projected Record						14 - 14	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0		3.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.5	1.9	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0			5.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.6	2.0	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.0					6.2	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.3	2.7	1.1	0.1							6.6	4th
5th									0.2	2.1	4.0	1.6	0.2								8.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.7	4.0	2.2	0.2									8.2	6th
7th							0.0	1.0	4.1	2.6	0.4	0.0									8.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	4.1	3.7	0.7	0.0										9.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	3.0	4.4	1.3	0.0											9.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.4	2.3	4.6	1.7	0.1												9.2	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.5	2.1	4.0	2.1	0.3	0.0												9.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.6	2.5	3.3	2.1	0.3	0.0													8.9	12th
13th	0.4	1.3	2.5	2.6	1.3	0.3	0.0														8.3	13th

Total	0.4	1.3	3.2	5.6	7.1	9.1	10.9	11.6	11.1	9.9	9.6	7.0	5.4	3.6	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	96.9%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	91.2%	0.4		0.4	0.1
15-3	65.5%	0.8		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	40.8%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.6%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0
12-6	3.5%	0.2			0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.7	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		42.9%	42.9%		5.3				0.0							0.0							0.0
17-1	0.2%		52.9%	32.5%	20.4%	9.7								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1						0.1		30.2%
16-2	0.5%		40.4%	33.2%	7.2%	10.4									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.3		10.8%
15-3	1.2%		29.6%	25.4%	4.2%	11.1											0.0	0.2	0.1					0.8		5.6%
14-4	2.3%		15.2%	14.3%	0.9%	11.5											0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				2.0		1.1%
13-5	3.6%		12.6%	12.6%		11.8												0.2	0.2	0.1				3.1
12-6	5.4%		9.6%	9.6%		12.1												0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			4.9
11-7	7.0%		5.0%	5.0%		12.2												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0			6.6
10-8	9.6%		3.0%	3.0%		12.6												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		9.3
9-9	9.9%		2.0%	2.0%		12.7												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7
8-10	11.1%		0.9%	0.9%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		11.0
7-11	11.6%		0.8%	0.8%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.5
6-12	10.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
5-13	9.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
4-14	7.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
3-15	5.6%																							5.6
2-16	3.2%																							3.2
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		3.1%	2.9%	0.2%	11.9				0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	96.9		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.0			100.0