IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+18.6	#8
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.1	#57
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.1	#19

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+9.5	#6

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	3.0%	3.0%	0.7%
#1 Seed	13.3%	13.4%	2.7%
Top 2 Seed	27.6%	27.8%	7.4%
Top 4 Seed	52.0%	52.3%	20.9%
Top 6 Seed	69.7%	70.1%	31.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	90.4%	90.7%	68.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	87.5%	87.7%	65.5%
Average Seed	4.4	4.4	6.4

.500 or above	96.4%	96.6%	80.4%
.500 or above in Conference	92.8%	92.9%	77.6%
Conference Champion	29.0%	29.1%	13.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.4%	1.3%

First Four	2.3%	2.3%	5.5%
First Round	89.3%	89.6%	64.2%
Second Round	75.2%	75.5%	43.9%
Sweet Sixteen	46.4%	46.7%	20.9%
Elite Eight	24.6%	24.8%	7.4%
Final Four	12.3%	12.4%	2.1%
Championship Game	6.2%	6.3%	0.7%
National Champion	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	3 - 4	3 - 4
Quad 1b	5 - 2	8 - 7
Quad 2	7 - 1	15 - 8
Quad 3	4 - 0	20 - 8
Quad 4	4 - 0	24 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	221	Quinnipiac	W	90-65	99%
Nov 08, 2025	19	Alabama	W	87-82	68%
Nov 15, 2025	226	William & Mary	W	92-67	99%
Nov 20, 2025	286	Bucknell	W	87-58	99%
Nov 24, 2025	20	Iowa St.	W	74-72	58%
Nov 25, 2025	24	Baylor	W	73-70	62%
Dec 06, 2025	30	Mississippi	W	78-70	74%
Dec 13, 2025	208	Iona	W	86-62	98%
Dec 16, 2025	83	DePaul	W	81-66	91%
Dec 20, 2025	7	Kentucky	L	78-79	48%
Dec 23, 2025	178	Harvard	W	82-59	97%
Dec 31, 2025	68	@ Georgetown	W	78-71	72%
Jan 03, 2026	61	Providence	W	79-67	85%
Jan 06, 2026	66	@ Butler	W	78-71	72%
Jan 10, 2026	25	@ Creighton	W	75-74	51%
Jan 13, 2026	43	Marquette	W	78-68	79%
Jan 17, 2026	39	@ Villanova	W	70-67	60%
Jan 20, 2026	102	Seton Hall	W	76-59	92%
Jan 24, 2026	50	@ Xavier	W	78-73	65%
Jan 28, 2026	66	Butler	W	81-68	85%
Feb 03, 2026	83	@ DePaul	W	78-69	77%
Feb 06, 2026	4	Connecticut	L	70-71	49%
Feb 09, 2026	50	Xavier	W	81-70	82%
Feb 14, 2026	61	@ Providence	W	76-70	70%
Feb 18, 2026	43	@ Marquette	W	75-71	61%
Feb 21, 2026	25	Creighton	W	78-72	70%
Feb 25, 2026	4	@ Connecticut	L	68-74	30%
Feb 28, 2026	39	Villanova	W	73-64	77%
Mar 03, 2026	68	Georgetown	W	81-68	86%
Mar 06, 2026	102	@ Seton Hall	W	73-62	81%
Projected Record						22 - 8	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.6	2.1	5.0	7.5	7.3	4.7	1.7		29.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	2.0	5.3	7.7	7.0	4.1	1.1				27.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.7	5.2	5.3	2.8	0.6	0.1					17.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.5	2.3	3.8	2.8	0.8	0.1							10.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	1.6	2.5	1.4	0.3	0.0								6.4	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1										3.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	0.4	0.1											2.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.0												1.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1														0.9	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0																0.2	11th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	1.3	1.8	3.2	4.2	6.1	8.3	10.4	12.1	12.6	12.6	11.6	8.4	4.7	1.7			Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.7		1.7
19-1	100.0%	4.7		4.4	0.3
18-2	87.0%	7.3		5.8	1.5	0.0
17-3	64.3%	7.5		5.0	2.2	0.2
16-4	39.5%	5.0		2.6	2.0	0.3	0.0
15-5	16.8%	2.1		0.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
14-6	5.1%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	29.0%	29.0		20.3	7.3	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.7%		100.0%	71.2%	28.8%	1.2		1.4	0.3																	100.0%
19-1	4.7%		100.0%	55.2%	44.8%	1.4		3.2	1.4	0.1	0.0															100.0%
18-2	8.4%		100.0%	46.1%	53.9%	1.7		3.9	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-3	11.6%		100.0%	38.4%	61.6%	2.2		3.1	4.4	2.8	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0												100.0%
16-4	12.6%		99.9%	28.9%	71.0%	3.1		1.3	3.1	3.9	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0									0.0		99.9%
15-5	12.6%		99.7%	23.0%	76.7%	4.1		0.3	1.4	3.0	3.4	2.4	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0							0.0		99.6%
14-6	12.1%		99.3%	17.5%	81.8%	5.1		0.0	0.4	1.7	2.5	2.8	2.1	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.1		99.2%
13-7	10.4%		97.5%	13.2%	84.3%	6.2		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.8	2.3	2.0	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1						0.3		97.1%
12-8	8.3%		93.0%	8.4%	84.6%	7.3			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.7	1.6	1.1	0.8	0.1						0.6		92.4%
11-9	6.1%		80.4%	5.5%	74.8%	8.2				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.0					1.2		79.2%
10-10	4.2%		62.5%	5.0%	57.4%	8.9					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0					1.6		60.5%
9-11	3.2%		35.9%	2.5%	33.4%	9.9								0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0					2.1		34.3%
8-12	1.8%		12.1%	1.6%	10.5%	10.4									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1						1.5		10.6%
7-13	1.3%		3.9%	1.7%	2.2%	10.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					1.2		2.2%
6-14	0.5%		1.4%	1.4%		12.0													0.0					0.5
5-15	0.3%																							0.3
4-16	0.2%																							0.2
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		90.4%	23.6%	66.9%	4.4		13.3	14.3	13.1	11.3	9.7	8.1	6.9	5.2	3.9	3.5	1.3	0.0					9.6		87.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	1.1	89.8	10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	1.2	79.9	20.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.2	83.3	16.7