Preseason Rankings
Iowa St.
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#110
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.1% 5.1% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 12.1% 12.2% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 29.6% 29.6% 9.6%
Top 6 Seed 47.5% 47.5% 16.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.0% 77.1% 41.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.2% 75.2% 40.0%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 7.2
.500 or above 91.9% 92.0% 48.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 78.9% 48.3%
Conference Champion 8.8% 8.8% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 6.6%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 6.4%
First Round74.8% 74.9% 41.9%
Second Round57.3% 57.4% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen29.9% 29.9% 9.6%
Elite Eight14.4% 14.4% 6.4%
Final Four6.7% 6.8% 0.0%
Championship Game3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 014 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 350   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-56 99.8%   
  Nov 06, 2025 284   Grambling St. W 78-52 99%    
  Nov 10, 2025 32   Mississippi St. W 74-71 61%    
  Nov 17, 2025 339   Stonehill W 83-52 99.6%   
  Nov 24, 2025 8   St. John's L 72-74 42%    
  Nov 25, 2025 25   Creighton W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 03, 2025 323   Alcorn St. W 82-53 99%    
  Dec 06, 2025 2   @ Purdue L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 11, 2025 34   Iowa W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 14, 2025 321   Eastern Illinois W 82-53 99%    
  Dec 21, 2025 264   Long Beach St. W 80-55 98%    
  Dec 29, 2025 288   Houston Christian W 81-54 99%    
  Jan 02, 2026 58   West Virginia W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 07, 2026 24   @ Baylor L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 10, 2026 73   Oklahoma St. W 82-70 83%    
  Jan 13, 2026 14   @ Kansas L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 17, 2026 45   @ Cincinnati W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 20, 2026 74   Central Florida W 82-70 84%    
  Jan 24, 2026 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 29, 2026 84   Colorado W 76-63 86%    
  Feb 01, 2026 57   @ Kansas St. W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 24   Baylor W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 10, 2026 56   @ TCU W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 14, 2026 14   Kansas W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 16, 2026 1   Houston L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 21, 2026 9   @ BYU L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 24, 2026 89   @ Utah W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 28, 2026 12   Texas Tech W 72-70 55%    
  Mar 02, 2026 11   @ Arizona L 73-78 35%    
  Mar 07, 2026 69   Arizona St. W 78-67 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 2.6 1.6 0.5 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 5.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.8 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.4 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.7 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 4.0 5.3 7.9 9.8 11.3 12.5 12.2 11.6 9.3 6.5 3.5 1.7 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 95.7% 1.6    1.4 0.2
16-2 73.8% 2.6    1.6 0.9 0.1
15-3 40.5% 2.6    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 13.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.7 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 54.9% 45.1% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.5% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.5 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.3% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 3.5 0.7 1.8 2.5 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.6% 99.6% 11.5% 88.1% 4.5 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 12.2% 98.4% 6.7% 91.7% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
11-7 12.5% 95.3% 3.9% 91.4% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 95.1%
10-8 11.3% 85.1% 1.3% 83.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 1.7 84.9%
9-9 9.8% 66.6% 0.7% 65.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 3.3 66.3%
8-10 7.9% 38.8% 1.0% 37.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.0 4.8 38.2%
7-11 5.3% 14.7% 0.3% 14.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.5 14.5%
6-12 4.0% 2.8% 0.4% 2.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 2.5%
5-13 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 77.0% 7.5% 69.5% 5.6 5.1 7.0 8.2 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.0 7.7 5.8 5.1 2.9 0.1 23.0 75.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 63.2 36.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0