Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#301
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.8#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 7.7% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.2 16.0 15.5
.500 or above 30.8% 76.9% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.2% 84.6% 57.1%
Conference Champion 10.0% 38.5% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 0.0% 8.8%
First Four4.8% 7.7% 4.8%
First Round8.0% 15.4% 8.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 411 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 4   @ Connecticut L 55-88 0.1%   
  Nov 10, 2025 363   New Haven W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 13, 2025 267   @ Columbia L 78-83 33%    
  Nov 16, 2025 67   @ Wake Forest L 63-83 4%    
  Nov 19, 2025 107   @ Bradley L 64-79 9%    
  Nov 22, 2025 295   @ St. Peter's L 65-68 38%    
  Dec 06, 2025 170   @ Massachusetts L 72-82 19%    
  Dec 13, 2025 221   @ Quinnipiac L 74-82 26%    
  Dec 16, 2025 251   Sacred Heart L 78-79 50%    
  Dec 21, 2025 280   @ Boston University L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 29, 2025 34   @ Iowa L 67-92 2%    
  Jan 03, 2026 296   Albany W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 08, 2026 248   @ Bryant L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 10, 2026 334   @ Binghamton L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 15, 2026 357   NJIT W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 22, 2026 207   Vermont L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 24, 2026 304   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79-82 41%    
  Jan 29, 2026 356   @ New Hampshire W 75-72 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 285   @ Maine L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 05, 2026 357   @ NJIT W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 07, 2026 296   @ Albany L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 12, 2026 248   Bryant L 79-80 49%    
  Feb 19, 2026 356   New Hampshire W 78-69 76%    
  Feb 21, 2026 334   Binghamton W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 26, 2026 207   @ Vermont L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 28, 2026 304   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-79 61%    
  Mar 03, 2026 285   @ Maine L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.7 2.2 0.3 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 5.5 2.0 0.1 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.4 4.0 1.0 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.9 8.4 10.3 11.7 12.1 12.6 10.5 8.7 6.2 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-2 94.4% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
13-3 76.1% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
12-4 43.1% 2.7    1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 13.6% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 6.1 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 56.8% 56.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.8% 50.1% 50.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
14-2 2.2% 41.6% 41.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.3
13-3 3.8% 29.4% 29.4% 16.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 2.7
12-4 6.2% 27.1% 27.1% 18.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 4.5
11-5 8.7% 15.5% 15.5% 18.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 7.3
10-6 10.5% 11.8% 11.8% 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 9.3
9-7 12.6% 8.5% 8.5% 17.7 0.1 1.1 11.6
8-8 12.1% 6.0% 6.0% 16.9 0.0 0.8 11.4
7-9 11.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.7 0.5 11.2
6-10 10.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.0
5-11 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-12 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-13 3.8% 3.8
2-14 1.8% 1.8
1-15 0.8% 0.8
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 17.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 7.1 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%