IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.6	#354
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#240
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.3	#339

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.3	#357

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	4.8%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.2	14.0	15.5

.500 or above	2.6%	9.4%	2.6%
.500 or above in Conference	13.3%	18.4%	13.2%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	31.4%	9.0%	31.5%

First Four	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%
First Round	0.5%	4.8%	0.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 0.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 12
Quad 4	6 - 11	7 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	23	@ North Carolina	L	59-91	0.2%
Nov 11, 2025	17	@ Arkansas	L	55-89	0.1%
Nov 16, 2025	171	Samford	L	70-80	19%
Nov 20, 2025	88	@ North Texas	L	50-72	2%
Nov 23, 2025	259	Eastern Washington	L	68-73	32%
Nov 25, 2025	321	Eastern Illinois	L	66-67	47%
Nov 29, 2025	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	59-76	7%
Dec 03, 2025	162	Arkansas Little Rock	L	64-74	19%
Dec 07, 2025	331	@ East Texas A&M	L	65-71	29%
Dec 13, 2025	41	@ Vanderbilt	L	59-88	1%
Dec 21, 2025	46	@ SMU	L	59-87	1%
Jan 01, 2026	175	Florida Gulf Coast	L	63-72	21%
Jan 03, 2026	348	Stetson	W	73-71	55%
Jan 08, 2026	319	@ Bellarmine	L	68-75	27%
Jan 10, 2026	181	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	64-79	10%
Jan 15, 2026	245	Jacksonville	L	65-71	30%
Jan 17, 2026	330	North Florida	L	77-78	48%
Jan 22, 2026	355	@ West Georgia	L	70-73	40%
Jan 24, 2026	191	@ North Alabama	L	62-77	11%
Jan 28, 2026	242	@ Queens	L	67-79	16%
Jan 31, 2026	181	Eastern Kentucky	L	67-76	23%
Feb 04, 2026	191	North Alabama	L	65-74	24%
Feb 07, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	61-76	12%
Feb 12, 2026	319	Bellarmine	L	71-72	45%
Feb 14, 2026	355	West Georgia	W	73-70	60%
Feb 19, 2026	348	@ Stetson	L	70-74	36%
Feb 21, 2026	175	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	60-75	10%
Feb 25, 2026	272	@ Austin Peay	L	63-74	19%
Feb 28, 2026	242	Queens	L	70-76	31%
Projected Record						7 - 22	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.7	2nd
3rd											0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0						1.3	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	1.0	0.3	0.0							2.1	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.0	1.6	0.5	0.0								3.2	5th
6th								0.2	1.5	2.4	1.0	0.1									5.2	6th
7th							0.4	1.9	3.5	1.6	0.2										7.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	2.2	0.3											9.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.6	3.4	5.5	2.6	0.4	0.0											12.5	9th
10th			0.1	1.4	4.8	6.2	3.2	0.5	0.0												16.2	10th
11th		0.3	3.1	6.4	6.6	2.9	0.5	0.0													19.8	11th
12th	2.1	5.5	7.0	4.8	1.7	0.2	0.0														21.4	12th

Total	2.1	5.9	10.2	12.6	13.8	13.1	12.1	9.2	7.8	5.4	3.6	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0					Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	80.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-3	76.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0
14-4	51.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	19.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0		0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0								0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.0%		40.0%	40.0%		13.5														0.0	0.0			0.0
15-3	0.1%		30.8%	30.8%		14.0														0.0		0.0		0.1
14-4	0.4%		15.0%	15.0%		17.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
13-5	0.5%		9.9%	9.9%		19.7														0.0		0.0	0.0	0.5
12-6	1.2%		4.2%	4.2%		17.5															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
11-7	2.0%		3.8%	3.8%		18.4															0.0	0.0	0.1	1.9
10-8	3.6%		2.7%	2.7%		18.1																0.0	0.1	3.5
9-9	5.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
8-10	7.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
7-11	9.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
6-12	12.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
5-13	13.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.1
4-14	13.8%																							13.8
3-15	12.6%																							12.6
2-16	10.2%																							10.2
1-17	5.9%																							5.9
0-18	2.1%																							2.1

Total	100%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	17.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	99.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.0%