Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#175
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.0#291
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 32.3% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 12.7 14.1
.500 or above 74.7% 94.8% 74.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 96.4% 88.0%
Conference Champion 25.0% 42.4% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four1.6% 0.6% 1.6%
First Round19.0% 33.3% 18.7%
Second Round1.1% 5.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 15   @ Illinois L 63-85 2%    
  Nov 11, 2025 243   Georgia Southern W 74-68 72%    
  Nov 15, 2025 134   Chattanooga W 70-69 50%    
  Nov 24, 2025 318   Oral Roberts W 75-64 84%    
  Nov 25, 2025 172   Rice W 69-66 60%    
  Nov 26, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 03, 2025 209   @ Florida International L 68-69 44%    
  Dec 07, 2025 140   Florida Atlantic W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 14, 2025 81   @ New Mexico L 67-78 17%    
  Dec 20, 2025 74   @ Central Florida L 67-79 15%    
  Jan 01, 2026 354   @ Central Arkansas W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 03, 2026 191   @ North Alabama L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 08, 2026 272   Austin Peay W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 10, 2026 188   Lipscomb W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 15, 2026 242   Queens W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 17, 2026 355   West Georgia W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 22, 2026 272   @ Austin Peay W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 24, 2026 188   @ Lipscomb L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 29, 2026 191   North Alabama W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 31, 2026 245   @ Jacksonville W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 05, 2026 181   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 07, 2026 319   @ Bellarmine W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 11, 2026 330   North Florida W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 14, 2026 348   Stetson W 77-63 87%    
  Feb 19, 2026 245   Jacksonville W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 21, 2026 354   Central Arkansas W 75-60 90%    
  Feb 26, 2026 330   @ North Florida W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 28, 2026 348   @ Stetson W 74-66 74%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 7.4 6.3 4.0 1.3 25.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.2 5.8 6.2 3.2 0.8 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.1 5.8 5.0 1.6 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.9 3.8 1.0 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 4.4 7.1 9.2 10.9 12.7 13.2 12.1 10.7 7.1 4.0 1.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.5% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 89.4% 6.3    5.1 1.3 0.0
15-3 69.3% 7.4    4.2 2.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 35.5% 4.3    1.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.9% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.3 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 62.0% 62.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5
17-1 4.0% 54.9% 54.9% 12.7 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8
16-2 7.1% 43.5% 43.5% 13.2 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.0
15-3 10.7% 33.8% 33.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.1 7.1
14-4 12.1% 25.7% 25.7% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.2 9.0
13-5 13.2% 18.8% 18.8% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 10.7
12-6 12.7% 14.8% 14.8% 17.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 10.8
11-7 10.9% 9.2% 9.2% 17.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 9.9
10-8 9.2% 5.4% 5.4% 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.7
9-9 7.1% 3.7% 3.7% 17.6 0.0 0.3 6.9
8-10 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 17.6 0.1 4.3
7-11 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.9 5.0 4.8 3.3 81.0 0.0%