IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.1	#214
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#318
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#177

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#265

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.9%	12.5%	7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.3	13.9

.500 or above	54.7%	76.6%	51.0%
.500 or above in Conference	66.0%	78.8%	63.8%
Conference Champion	8.3%	15.2%	7.1%
Last Place in Conference	4.4%	1.8%	4.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	8.0%	12.5%	7.2%
Second Round	0.5%	0.9%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	3 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 6	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	98	@ Colorado St.	L	62-73	15%
Nov 16, 2025	33	@ Indiana	L	60-80	4%
Nov 20, 2025	311	Southern Indiana	W	72-67	68%
Dec 01, 2025	93	McNeese St.	L	63-69	29%
Dec 06, 2025	241	@ Nicholls St.	L	68-70	44%
Dec 08, 2025	317	@ New Orleans	W	74-71	60%
Dec 15, 2025	56	@ TCU	L	59-75	9%
Dec 20, 2025	254	Northern Arizona	W	72-67	67%
Dec 30, 2025	250	SE Louisiana	W	71-66	66%
Jan 03, 2026	288	Houston Christian	W	69-62	73%
Jan 05, 2026	275	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	73-72	50%
Jan 10, 2026	211	@ Lamar	L	64-67	40%
Jan 12, 2026	220	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	65-68	41%
Jan 17, 2026	257	Northwestern St.	W	67-62	66%
Jan 19, 2026	331	East Texas A&M	W	72-62	80%
Jan 24, 2026	222	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	69-66	61%
Jan 26, 2026	288	@ Houston Christian	W	66-65	54%
Jan 31, 2026	275	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-69	69%
Feb 02, 2026	222	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	66-69	41%
Feb 07, 2026	93	@ McNeese St.	L	60-72	17%
Feb 09, 2026	250	@ SE Louisiana	L	68-69	45%
Feb 14, 2026	241	Nicholls St.	W	71-67	64%
Feb 16, 2026	317	New Orleans	W	77-68	76%
Feb 21, 2026	331	@ East Texas A&M	W	69-65	63%
Feb 23, 2026	257	@ Northwestern St.	L	64-65	47%
Feb 28, 2026	211	Lamar	W	67-64	59%
Mar 02, 2026	220	Stephen F. Austin	W	68-65	60%
Projected Record						14 - 13	12 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-22	1-21	2-20	3-19	4-18	5-17	6-16	7-15	8-14	9-13	10-12	11-11	12-10	13-9	14-8	15-7	16-6	17-5	18-4	19-3	20-2	21-1	22-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	2.1	1.8	1.1	0.6	0.1		8.3	1st
2nd													0.0	0.3	1.2	2.6	3.6	3.3	1.8	0.5	0.1				13.5	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.4	2.1	4.0	3.7	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0					12.9	3rd
4th											0.0	0.6	2.4	4.0	3.1	1.2	0.2	0.0							11.6	4th
5th										0.0	0.4	2.4	4.1	2.9	0.7	0.1									10.7	5th
6th									0.0	0.4	2.1	3.8	2.3	0.5	0.0										9.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.4	1.9	3.2	2.0	0.4	0.0											8.0	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	1.8	3.3	1.8	0.3	0.0												7.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.2														6.2	9th
10th					0.1	0.5	1.5	2.0	1.1	0.2															5.3	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	1.3	0.6	0.1																4.2	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1																	2.6	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.4	2.4	3.5	4.5	6.0	7.3	7.7	9.2	9.7	9.9	9.2	7.8	6.5	5.4	4.0	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
22-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
21-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
20-2	92.1%	1.1		1.0	0.1
19-3	76.6%	1.8		1.4	0.3	0.0
18-4	52.2%	2.1		1.3	0.7	0.1
17-5	28.2%	1.5		0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0
16-6	12.3%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0
15-7	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-8	0.4%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
13-9	0.1%	0.0					0.0
12-10	0.0%
11-11	0.0%

Total	8.3%	8.3		5.4	2.3	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
22-0	0.1%		68.9%	68.9%		11.6												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
21-1	0.6%		50.0%	50.0%		11.9											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.3
20-2	1.2%		44.7%	44.7%		12.4												0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.7
19-3	2.3%		37.5%	37.5%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0		1.5
18-4	4.0%		33.9%	33.9%		13.2												0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.1		2.7
17-5	5.4%		24.6%	24.6%		13.6													0.2	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	4.1
16-6	6.5%		16.8%	16.8%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	5.4
15-7	7.8%		12.6%	12.6%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	6.8
14-8	9.2%		6.7%	6.7%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	8.6
13-9	9.9%		3.1%	3.1%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	9.6
12-10	9.7%		2.0%	2.0%		17.9															0.0	0.1	0.1	9.5
11-11	9.2%		1.4%	1.4%		19.1																0.1	0.1	9.1
10-12	7.7%		0.5%	0.5%		19.2																	0.0	7.6
9-13	7.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
8-14	6.0%																							6.0
7-15	4.5%																							4.5
6-16	3.5%																							3.5
5-17	2.4%																							2.4
4-18	1.4%																							1.4
3-19	0.8%																							0.8
2-20	0.4%																							0.4
1-21	0.1%																							0.1
0-22	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		7.9%	7.9%	0.0%	14.0											0.0	0.2	1.1	2.0	2.5	1.7	0.6	92.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%