Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#271
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#83
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#283
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#250
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 10.9% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 13.9 14.7
.500 or above 16.3% 44.4% 14.8%
.500 or above in Conference 30.6% 53.3% 29.4%
Conference Champion 4.5% 10.8% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 30.7% 14.8% 31.6%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round4.7% 10.7% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 83 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 69   @ Arizona St. L 65-82 5%    
  Nov 08, 2025 275   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-74 61%    
  Nov 15, 2025 177   @ Nebraska Omaha L 70-78 25%    
  Nov 17, 2025 18   @ Gonzaga L 64-90 1%    
  Nov 19, 2025 128   @ Washington St. L 71-82 17%    
  Nov 28, 2025 203   @ Robert Morris L 69-76 28%    
  Nov 29, 2025 348   Stetson W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 06, 2025 117   @ Oregon St. L 63-75 15%    
  Dec 13, 2025 48   @ Washington L 64-84 4%    
  Dec 18, 2025 254   @ Northern Arizona L 70-74 37%    
  Dec 29, 2025 269   @ Utah Tech L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 03, 2026 190   Texas Arlington L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 08, 2026 118   @ Utah Valley L 65-77 16%    
  Jan 10, 2026 174   @ California Baptist L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 15, 2026 273   Tarleton St. W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 17, 2026 166   Abilene Christian L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 21, 2026 118   Utah Valley L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 24, 2026 269   @ Utah Tech L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 29, 2026 190   @ Texas Arlington L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 31, 2026 166   @ Abilene Christian L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 07, 2026 273   Tarleton St. W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 12, 2026 174   California Baptist L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 14, 2026 190   @ Texas Arlington L 69-76 28%    
  Feb 19, 2026 273   @ Tarleton St. L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 21, 2026 166   @ Abilene Christian L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 28, 2026 269   Utah Tech W 73-70 59%    
  Mar 05, 2026 118   Utah Valley L 68-74 32%    
  Mar 07, 2026 174   California Baptist L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.5 2.3 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 4.7 6.3 4.2 0.9 0.1 18.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.1 6.6 5.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 20.6 6th
7th 1.1 2.8 4.9 5.9 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 23.1 7th
Total 1.1 2.8 5.1 7.4 9.4 10.9 11.5 10.8 10.4 8.7 7.2 5.3 4.1 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 91.8% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 72.2% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 46.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 15.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 60.8% 60.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 52.2% 52.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 36.5% 36.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.7% 36.9% 36.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.3% 21.9% 21.9% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-6 4.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3
11-7 5.3% 12.3% 12.3% 16.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.6
10-8 7.2% 8.4% 8.4% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 6.6
9-9 8.7% 4.9% 4.9% 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.3
8-10 10.4% 3.6% 3.6% 17.7 0.0 0.4 10.0
7-11 10.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
6-12 11.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.4
5-13 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 7.4% 7.4
2-16 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
1-17 2.8% 2.8
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 95.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%