IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#190
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#164
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#171

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.6%	20.7%	13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.3	14.1

.500 or above	49.9%	74.8%	45.9%
.500 or above in Conference	60.6%	76.0%	58.2%
Conference Champion	14.9%	24.2%	13.4%
Last Place in Conference	11.0%	5.6%	11.8%

First Four	1.3%	0.6%	1.5%
First Round	14.5%	20.7%	13.5%
Second Round	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 6	4 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 5	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	81	@ New Mexico	L	70-82	14%
Nov 15, 2025	114	Missouri St.	L	66-68	41%
Nov 18, 2025	231	@ Evansville	L	69-70	46%
Nov 21, 2025	200	Campbell	W	70-69	51%
Nov 22, 2025	281	@ Weber St.	W	71-69	56%
Nov 29, 2025	220	Stephen F. Austin	W	71-67	65%
Dec 02, 2025	137	@ Arkansas St.	L	71-78	28%
Dec 11, 2025	275	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	76-75	54%
Dec 17, 2025	99	@ Stanford	L	65-75	19%
Dec 22, 2025	318	@ Oral Roberts	W	75-71	63%
Dec 29, 2025	273	Tarleton St.	W	70-63	72%
Jan 01, 2026	174	California Baptist	W	71-69	56%
Jan 03, 2026	271	@ Southern Utah	W	73-72	53%
Jan 10, 2026	166	Abilene Christian	W	72-70	55%
Jan 15, 2026	269	@ Utah Tech	W	72-71	52%
Jan 17, 2026	118	@ Utah Valley	L	67-75	26%
Jan 21, 2026	273	Tarleton St.	W	70-63	71%
Jan 29, 2026	271	Southern Utah	W	76-69	71%
Jan 31, 2026	174	California Baptist	W	71-69	57%
Feb 05, 2026	269	@ Utah Tech	W	72-71	52%
Feb 07, 2026	118	@ Utah Valley	L	67-75	26%
Feb 12, 2026	166	@ Abilene Christian	L	69-73	35%
Feb 14, 2026	271	Southern Utah	W	76-69	72%
Feb 19, 2026	269	Utah Tech	W	75-68	71%
Feb 21, 2026	118	Utah Valley	L	70-72	44%
Feb 26, 2026	174	@ California Baptist	L	68-72	37%
Mar 05, 2026	273	@ Tarleton St.	W	67-66	54%
Mar 07, 2026	166	@ Abilene Christian	L	69-73	35%
Projected Record						14 - 14	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.4	1.5	2.9	4.0	3.1	1.9	0.8	0.2		14.9	1st
2nd										0.2	1.8	4.4	5.3	3.9	1.7	0.3	0.0				17.7	2nd
3rd								0.1	0.9	4.0	6.4	4.9	2.0	0.3	0.0						18.6	3rd
4th							0.2	2.1	5.1	5.8	2.8	0.6	0.1								16.7	4th
5th					0.1	1.0	3.0	4.9	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.0									13.9	5th
6th			0.0	0.6	1.6	3.3	3.5	1.7	0.3												10.9	6th
7th	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.9	1.9	1.4	0.5	0.1													7.4	7th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.0	2.4	3.6	5.6	7.3	8.8	10.0	11.1	11.1	10.3	8.9	7.2	5.7	3.4	1.9	0.8	0.2			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8
16-2	98.9%	1.9		1.8	0.1
15-3	90.6%	3.1		2.7	0.4
14-4	69.9%	4.0		2.8	1.0	0.1
13-5	41.0%	2.9		1.5	1.3	0.2
12-6	16.6%	1.5		0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0
11-7	4.2%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.9%	14.9		10.4	3.6	0.8	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		84.1%	84.1%		11.0						0.0			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.8%		62.4%	61.5%	0.9%	12.2										0.0		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.3		2.2%
16-2	1.9%		55.5%	55.5%		12.4												0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0		0.8
15-3	3.4%		45.6%	45.6%		12.9												0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	0.1		1.9
14-4	5.7%		39.1%	39.1%		13.4												0.0	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.0	3.5
13-5	7.2%		30.4%	30.4%		13.9												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	5.0
12-6	8.9%		25.5%	25.5%		14.8													0.1	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.3	6.6
11-7	10.3%		17.4%	17.4%		15.7													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.4	8.5
10-8	11.1%		11.0%	11.0%		16.1														0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	9.9
9-9	11.1%		7.5%	7.5%		17.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	10.2
8-10	10.0%		3.5%	3.5%		17.9															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.7
7-11	8.8%		2.2%	2.2%		16.4															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.6
6-12	7.3%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	7.1
5-13	5.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	5.6
4-14	3.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
3-15	2.4%																							2.4
2-16	1.0%																							1.0
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		14.6%	14.6%	0.0%	14.4						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.8	3.4	4.0	3.2	2.2	85.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.7					33.3			33.3		33.3
Lose Out	0.0%