IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.4	#342
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.8	#316
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.8	#329

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#337

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	2.6%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.3	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	4.0%	16.4%	3.5%
.500 or above in Conference	7.8%	16.9%	7.5%
Conference Champion	0.4%	1.4%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	51.5%	31.2%	52.2%

First Four	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%
First Round	0.5%	2.6%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 9	7 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	96	@ Boston College	L	58-78	3%
Nov 10, 2025	313	Charleston Southern	W	68-67	51%
Nov 14, 2025	355	@ West Georgia	L	68-69	48%
Nov 24, 2025	319	Bellarmine	W	70-69	53%
Nov 26, 2025	288	Houston Christian	L	64-65	46%
Nov 30, 2025	263	Presbyterian	L	62-68	30%
Dec 04, 2025	145	@ Davidson	L	59-74	9%
Dec 13, 2025	71	@ South Carolina	L	54-77	3%
Dec 17, 2025	123	@ College of Charleston	L	63-80	8%
Dec 20, 2025	131	@ Richmond	L	56-72	8%
Dec 31, 2025	156	East Tennessee St.	L	61-69	23%
Jan 03, 2026	205	Wofford	L	62-68	31%
Jan 07, 2026	246	@ Mercer	L	65-75	20%
Jan 10, 2026	262	Western Carolina	L	69-72	40%
Jan 15, 2026	232	@ UNC Greensboro	L	58-69	18%
Jan 17, 2026	293	@ VMI	L	65-72	28%
Jan 21, 2026	142	Furman	L	62-72	21%
Jan 24, 2026	156	@ East Tennessee St.	L	58-72	12%
Jan 29, 2026	293	VMI	L	68-69	47%
Jan 31, 2026	232	UNC Greensboro	L	61-66	35%
Feb 05, 2026	171	@ Samford	L	66-80	13%
Feb 07, 2026	134	@ Chattanooga	L	61-77	9%
Feb 11, 2026	262	@ Western Carolina	L	66-75	23%
Feb 14, 2026	246	Mercer	L	68-72	37%
Feb 19, 2026	171	Samford	L	69-77	27%
Feb 21, 2026	134	Chattanooga	L	64-74	20%
Feb 25, 2026	142	@ Furman	L	59-75	10%
Feb 28, 2026	205	@ Wofford	L	59-71	17%
Projected Record						7 - 21	4 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.4	1st
2nd											0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0						0.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0							1.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0								2.5	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	1.5	1.6	0.5	0.0									4.0	5th
6th						0.0	0.7	2.3	2.3	0.6	0.0										6.1	6th
7th					0.1	1.3	3.5	3.1	0.9	0.1	0.0										8.9	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	2.1	5.2	4.6	1.1	0.1	0.0											13.6	8th
9th		0.2	2.0	5.7	7.7	5.1	1.3	0.1													22.1	9th
10th	4.7	10.0	11.5	8.9	3.9	0.9	0.0														40.1	10th

Total	4.7	10.2	13.5	15.1	13.9	12.6	10.2	6.9	5.0	3.4	2.1	1.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0				Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-4	87.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-5	34.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	14.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.8%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%																							0.0
16-2	0.0%																					0.0
15-3	0.0%																							0.0
14-4	0.2%		24.8%	24.8%		14.2													0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
13-5	0.4%		14.4%	14.4%		13.5														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
12-6	0.5%		10.3%	10.3%		14.9													0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.5
11-7	1.2%		7.8%	7.8%		18.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1
10-8	2.1%		3.1%	3.1%		18.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
9-9	3.4%		3.3%	3.3%		15.7																0.0	0.1	3.3
8-10	5.0%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
7-11	6.9%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	6.9
6-12	10.2%		0.5%	0.5%		18.3																	0.1	10.2
5-13	12.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.5
4-14	13.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.9
3-15	15.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	15.1
2-16	13.5%																							13.5
1-17	10.2%																							10.2
0-18	4.7%																							4.7

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	16.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.9%