Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#275
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.6#38
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#287
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 11.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 13.6 14.4
.500 or above 26.4% 64.0% 26.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 69.3% 41.7%
Conference Champion 2.6% 7.3% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.2% 2.6% 11.3%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round2.8% 11.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 410 - 712 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 60-84 1%    
  Nov 08, 2025 271   @ Southern Utah L 74-77 39%    
  Nov 11, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 64-82 4%    
  Nov 22, 2025 114   @ Missouri St. L 63-76 13%    
  Nov 24, 2025 15   @ Illinois L 68-95 1%    
  Dec 03, 2025 220   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 07, 2025 272   Austin Peay W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 11, 2025 190   Texas Arlington L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 16, 2025 211   @ Lamar L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 29, 2025 317   New Orleans W 81-75 69%    
  Dec 31, 2025 241   Nicholls St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 03, 2026 222   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 05, 2026 214   Incarnate Word L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 10, 2026 331   @ East Texas A&M W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 12, 2026 257   @ Northwestern St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 17, 2026 93   McNeese St. L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 19, 2026 250   SE Louisiana W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 24, 2026 288   @ Houston Christian L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 26, 2026 222   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-76 32%    
  Jan 31, 2026 214   @ Incarnate Word L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 02, 2026 288   Houston Christian W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 07, 2026 317   @ New Orleans L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 09, 2026 241   @ Nicholls St. L 72-77 36%    
  Feb 14, 2026 220   Stephen F. Austin W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 16, 2026 211   Lamar L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 21, 2026 250   @ SE Louisiana L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 23, 2026 93   @ McNeese St. L 64-79 11%    
  Feb 28, 2026 331   East Texas A&M W 76-69 71%    
  Mar 02, 2026 257   Northwestern St. W 71-69 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 10 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 7.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.1 5.5 6.8 8.6 9.2 10.1 9.3 9.0 8.5 7.0 5.9 4.3 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 91.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
19-3 77.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
18-4 57.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
17-5 28.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1
16-6 12.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.1% 60.6% 60.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20-2 0.3% 40.5% 40.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-3 0.5% 35.5% 35.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
18-4 1.2% 18.2% 18.2% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
17-5 1.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
16-6 3.3% 13.9% 13.9% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.8
15-7 4.3% 10.0% 10.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.9
14-8 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.6
13-9 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 17.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.7
12-10 8.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
11-11 9.0% 1.5% 1.5% 17.3 0.1 0.1 8.9
10-12 9.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.2
9-13 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
8-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-15 8.6% 8.6
6-16 6.8% 6.8
5-17 5.5% 5.5
4-18 4.1% 4.1
3-19 2.5% 2.5
2-20 1.3% 1.3
1-21 0.5% 0.5
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%