Pre-tourney Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#311
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#253
Pace69.8#133
Improvement-0.1#191

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#294
First Shot-2.5#251
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#316
Layup/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#117
Freethrows-3.1#346
Improvement+2.5#61

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#283
First Shot-4.1#310
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#136
Layups/Dunks-5.1#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows-2.0#305
Improvement-2.5#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 01 - 3
Quad 32 - 103 - 13
Quad 411 - 614 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 1   @ Connecticut L 52-95 1%     0 - 1 -17.7 -10.1 -8.6
  Nov 12, 2023 59   @ Grand Canyon L 55-89 4%     0 - 2 -22.0 -13.4 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2023 119   @ Seattle W 62-60 10%     1 - 2 +7.7 -9.1 +16.7
  Nov 17, 2023 164   Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-77 21%     1 - 3 -10.1 -12.9 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2023 359   VMI W 78-69 78%     2 - 3 -7.8 -2.3 -5.8
  Nov 21, 2023 159   @ Hawaii L 61-70 15%     2 - 4 -6.1 -11.0 +5.1
  Nov 29, 2023 198   @ UC Santa Barbara L 59-70 20%     2 - 5 -10.5 -12.9 +2.0
  Dec 02, 2023 353   Pacific W 78-58 81%     3 - 5 +2.4 +5.8 -1.0
  Dec 06, 2023 204   @ Abilene Christian W 78-76 20%     4 - 5 +2.3 +1.3 +0.9
  Dec 09, 2023 351   @ Incarnate Word W 76-75 61%     5 - 5 -10.4 -1.6 -8.8
  Dec 16, 2023 246   Southern Utah W 76-74 44%     6 - 5 -4.8 -4.6 -0.2
  Dec 20, 2023 72   @ San Francisco L 51-91 5%     6 - 6 -29.9 -14.1 -17.1
  Dec 30, 2023 206   @ Northern Colorado L 77-92 20%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -14.8 +5.1 -20.6
  Jan 03, 2024 261   @ Nebraska Omaha L 55-81 28%     6 - 8 -28.5 -14.4 -16.8
  Jan 06, 2024 232   North Dakota W 74-73 41%     7 - 8 -5.1 -1.2 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2024 214   @ Montana St. L 50-79 22%     7 - 9 0 - 2 -29.2 -21.7 -7.9
  Jan 13, 2024 158   @ Montana L 47-90 15%     7 - 10 0 - 3 -40.1 -21.4 -25.1
  Jan 18, 2024 253   Portland St. W 84-65 46%     8 - 10 1 - 3 +11.6 +4.7 +5.7
  Jan 20, 2024 302   Sacramento St. W 70-61 58%     9 - 10 2 - 3 -1.5 -4.3 +3.2
  Jan 25, 2024 320   @ Idaho W 75-60 43%     10 - 10 3 - 3 +8.3 +3.4 +5.7
  Jan 27, 2024 152   @ Eastern Washington L 70-85 13%     10 - 11 3 - 4 -11.5 -6.3 -5.0
  Feb 01, 2024 162   Weber St. L 70-72 28%     10 - 12 3 - 5 -4.4 -3.0 -1.5
  Feb 03, 2024 254   Idaho St. L 79-81 47%     10 - 13 3 - 6 -9.6 +4.2 -13.8
  Feb 08, 2024 158   Montana L 66-94 28%     10 - 14 3 - 7 -30.3 -11.3 -19.3
  Feb 10, 2024 214   Montana St. W 76-71 38%     11 - 14 4 - 7 -0.4 -5.3 +4.5
  Feb 15, 2024 302   @ Sacramento St. W 73-58 38%     12 - 14 5 - 7 +9.7 +14.7 -1.6
  Feb 17, 2024 253   @ Portland St. L 68-83 27%     12 - 15 5 - 8 -17.2 -5.0 -11.8
  Feb 22, 2024 152   Eastern Washington W 78-71 26%     13 - 15 6 - 8 +5.3 +1.6 +3.8
  Feb 24, 2024 320   Idaho L 76-86 63%     13 - 16 6 - 9 -21.9 -5.1 -16.3
  Feb 29, 2024 254   @ Idaho St. W 92-88 2OT 28%     14 - 16 7 - 9 +1.6 +4.0 -3.0
  Mar 02, 2024 162   @ Weber St. L 58-85 15%     14 - 17 7 - 10 -24.2 -13.1 -11.9
  Mar 04, 2024 206   Northern Colorado L 74-82 37%     14 - 18 7 - 11 -13.0 -2.8 -10.3
  Mar 09, 2024 254   Idaho St. L 60-68 37%     14 - 19 -13.0 -10.1 -3.6
Projected Record 14 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%