Minnesota
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
94  Adam Zutz SR 31:49
128  Aaron Bartnik SR 31:58
135  Obsa Ali SO 31:59
172  Charlie Lawrence SO 32:09
390  Christian Skaret SR 32:46
527  Riley Macon JR 33:02
588  Eric Colvin SO 33:08
641  Matt Welch SO 33:14
771  Sam Carlson FR 33:27
National Rank #28 of 308
Midwest Region Rank #4 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 46.5%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 2.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 20.9%


Regional Champion 5.7%
Top 5 in Regional 93.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Adam Zutz Aaron Bartnik Obsa Ali Charlie Lawrence Christian Skaret Riley Macon Eric Colvin Matt Welch Sam Carlson
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 632 31:58 32:06 31:54 32:16 32:49 32:20 32:49
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 867 31:51 32:56 32:21 33:07 32:55 33:48 33:57
Big Ten Championships 11/01 599 31:37 31:54 31:56 32:24 33:25 33:34 32:26 33:07
Midwest Region Championships 11/13 530 31:51 31:44 31:48 31:52 32:27 33:36 32:54
NCAA Championship 11/21 558 31:46 32:10 31:45 31:52 32:25 33:26 34:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 46.5% 20.7 505 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.2 3.1 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.5
Region Championship 100% 3.6 120 5.7 18.0 25.3 24.5 19.7 5.8 0.9 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Adam Zutz 56.3% 81.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Aaron Bartnik 48.9% 101.5 0.0 0.0
Obsa Ali 49.2% 100.4 0.0
Charlie Lawrence 46.9% 128.4
Christian Skaret 46.5% 201.2
Riley Macon 46.5% 221.9
Eric Colvin 46.5% 227.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Adam Zutz 10.9 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.7 5.9 6.9 7.8 7.0 7.1 5.8 5.8 4.4 4.4 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2
Aaron Bartnik 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.9 5.4 6.4 6.1 5.8 6.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.9
Obsa Ali 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 5.8 5.1 6.5 6.1 6.3 5.6 4.9 4.6 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.6
Charlie Lawrence 20.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.0
Christian Skaret 47.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0
Riley Macon 63.6
Eric Colvin 68.4 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.7% 100.0% 5.7 5.7 1
2 18.0% 100.0% 18.0 18.0 2
3 25.3% 60.6% 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 10.0 15.3 3
4 24.5% 27.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 17.7 6.8 4
5 19.7% 3.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 19.0 0.7 5
6 5.8% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.1 6
7 0.9% 0.9 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 46.5% 5.7 18.0 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 53.5 23.6 22.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Michigan State 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 61.1% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0