Wisconsin
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
67  Morgan McDonald SO 31:39
160  Malachy Schrobilgen JR 32:07
219  Joe Hardy SO 32:20
319  Russell Sandvold JR 32:36
628  Troy Smith SO 33:13
766  Tyson Miehe FR 33:26
874  Carl Hirsch SO 33:37
1,674  Joe McAsey JR 34:48
National Rank #43 of 308
Great Lakes Region Rank #6 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 12.0%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 2.0%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 39.8%
Top 10 in Regional 99.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Morgan McDonald Malachy Schrobilgen Joe Hardy Russell Sandvold Troy Smith Tyson Miehe Carl Hirsch Joe McAsey
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 886 32:32 32:31 32:32 32:32 32:51 33:35
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 633 31:24 31:12 32:46 32:10 33:21
Big Ten Championships 11/01 790 31:23 31:49 32:42 33:51 33:38 36:15
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 820 31:42 32:25 32:12 33:23 33:14 33:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 12.0% 24.8 581 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.4
Region Championship 100% 5.8 172 0.2 1.9 6.6 12.1 19.0 27.2 21.5 7.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan McDonald 61.1% 61.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Malachy Schrobilgen 15.3% 109.1
Joe Hardy 12.3% 140.5
Russell Sandvold 12.0% 175.4
Troy Smith 12.0% 226.6
Tyson Miehe 12.0% 236.4
Carl Hirsch 12.0% 241.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Morgan McDonald 6.7 2.7 6.3 9.6 9.3 9.2 7.6 7.5 5.6 5.2 4.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8
Malachy Schrobilgen 18.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.1 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.9
Joe Hardy 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.1
Russell Sandvold 39.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.8 2.2
Troy Smith 69.0
Tyson Miehe 81.9
Carl Hirsch 91.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 1.9% 100.0% 1.9 1.9 2
3 6.6% 61.6% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 2.5 4.0 3
4 12.1% 27.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 8.8 3.3 4
5 19.0% 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 17.0 2.1 5
6 27.2% 1.8% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 26.8 0.5 6
7 21.5% 21.5 7
8 7.8% 7.8 8
9 2.6% 2.6 9
10 1.0% 1.0 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 12.0% 0.2 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 88.0 2.1 9.9




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 2.0 0.1
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0