Portland
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
158  Jeff Thies SO 32:06
180  Nick Hauger FR 32:12
192  Danny Martinez JR 32:13
213  Alex Dillard JR 32:19
293  Timo Goehler SR 32:32
303  Gabriel Haughey FR 32:34
346  Keegan Symmes SO 32:40
598  Ben Forsee JR 33:09
618  Logan Orndorf FR 33:12
635  Chris Enriquez SR 33:13
National Rank #38 of 308
West Region Rank #8 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 10.1%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.6%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 15.4%
Top 10 in Regional 95.7%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jeff Thies Nick Hauger Danny Martinez Alex Dillard Timo Goehler Gabriel Haughey Keegan Symmes Ben Forsee Logan Orndorf Chris Enriquez
Washington Invitational 10/02 785 32:14 32:22 32:14 32:32 32:37 32:36 32:45 33:09
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 705 31:54 32:07 32:22 32:53 32:22 32:27 33:41
Emerald City Open 10/17 1230 33:12 33:15
West Coast Conference 10/31 787 32:36 32:07 32:20 32:27 32:25 32:55 33:12 33:31 32:58
West Region Championships 11/13 653 31:48 32:14 32:06 32:16 32:21 32:27 33:09





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 10.1% 20.6 505 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1
Region Championship 100% 7.4 198 0.1 1.4 4.7 9.1 15.1 20.1 22.3 15.8 7.1 3.0 1.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jeff Thies 18.3% 111.9 0.0
Nick Hauger 13.2% 124.8
Danny Martinez 12.8% 123.2
Alex Dillard 10.5% 136.8
Timo Goehler 10.2% 165.6
Gabriel Haughey 10.1% 169.1
Keegan Symmes 10.1% 179.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jeff Thies 30.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9
Nick Hauger 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.7
Danny Martinez 36.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2
Alex Dillard 41.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6
Timo Goehler 53.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Gabriel Haughey 54.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Keegan Symmes 60.5 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 2
3 1.4% 82.9% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 3
4 4.7% 63.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.7 3.0 4
5 9.1% 37.6% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 5.7 3.4 5
6 15.1% 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 13.2 1.9 6
7 20.1% 2.6% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 19.5 0.5 7
8 22.3% 0.2% 0.0 22.2 0.0 8
9 15.8% 15.8 9
10 7.1% 7.1 10
11 3.0% 3.0 11
12 1.3% 1.3 12
13 0.0% 0.0 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 10.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.3 89.9 0.1 10.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0